Atık ekmek probleminin sistem dinamiği yöntemi ile modellenmesi

Ekmek israfı pek çok ülke için önemli bir mali ve çevresel sorun oluşturmaktadır. Bu problem, içinde pek çok geri besleme döngüsü içeren, dinamik ve karmaşık bir sistem problemidir. Bu çalışmada, ekmek israfının oluşumu sistem dinamiği yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Sistem dinamiği yöntemi geri besleme döngüleri içeren dinamik problemlerin modellenmesine ve analiz edilmesine olanak sağlayan bir yaklaşımdır. Bu çalışmada sunulan model, ekmek üretim ve tedarik zincirinin çesitli aşamalarını kapsamaktadır. Oluşturulan model farklı parametre değerleri ve gelecek senaryoları altında test edilmiş, sonuçlar analiz edilmiştir. Simulasyon senaryolarında İstanbul şehrine ait veri seti kullanılmıştır. Senaryo sonuçları ekmek israfının önlenmesinde en önemli faktörün ekmeğin raf ömrü olduğunu göstermiştir. Ekmeğin raf ömrünün iki katına çıkarılmasının ekmek israfını %25 oranında azaltabileceği bulunmuştur.

System dynamics modelling of bread waste problem

Bread waste is a significant economic and environmental problem formany countries. In this paper, we propose a system dynamics approachfor bread waste problem that involves significant complexities such asfeedbacks and dynamic elements. System dynamics modelling is asimulation method that allows to model these complexities andinvestigate the impact of public policies on the system performance. Wedevelop a system dynamics model of bread production and consumptiondynamics within a geographical area. We design numerouscomputational experiments by using the related data from Istanbul,Turkey. The experiments suggest that the shelf life is the most importantfactor on the waste production: doubling the shelf life of the bread canreduce the bread waste by 25%

PDF

___

[1] Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. "Global Warming of 1.5C". World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2018.
[2] Hiç C, Pradhan P, Rybski D, Kropp JP. "Food surplus and ıts climate burdens". Environmental Science & Technology, 50(8), 4269-77, 2016.
[3] Value Chain Management Centre. "The Cost Of Canada’s Annual Food Waste". Toronto, Canada, 2014.
[4] Goldenberg S. "Half of All US Food Produce is Thrown Away, New Research Suggests". https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/1 3/us-food-waste-ugly-fruit-vegetables-perfect) (12.07.2018).
[5] Kranert M, Hafner G, Barabosz J, Schuller H, Leverenz D, Kölbig A, Schneider F, Lebersorger S, Scherhaufer S. "Ermittlung der Weggeworfenen Lebensmittelmengen und Vorschläge zur Verminderung der Wegwerfrate bei Lebensmitteln in Deutschland". http://www.bmelv. de/SharedDocs/Downloads/Ernaehrung/WvL/Studie_Le bensmittelabfaelle_Langfassung. pdf, (10.05.2018).
[6] Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP). "Estimates of Food Surplus and Waste Arisings in the UK". London, UK, 2017.
[7] Thönissen R. “Food waste: The Netherlands”. EU Presidency Climate Smart Food Conference, Lund, Sweeden, November, 2009.
[8] Parfitt J, Barthel M, Macnaughton S. "Food waste within food supply chains: quantification and potential for change to 2050". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365(1554), 3065-3081, 2010.
[9] Jones T. "The value of food loss in the American Household". Bureau of Applied Research in Anthropology, A Report to Tilia Corporation, San Francisco, CA, USA, 2004.
[10] Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP). "Household food and drink waste in the UK". Banbury, UK, 2009.
[11] Amid J. "The dilemma of cheap food and self-sufficiency: The case of wheat in Iran". Food Policy, 32(4), 537-552, 2007.
[12] Fattibene D, Bianchi M. "Fighting against Food Losses and Waste: An EU Agenda". Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), Italy, 10, 2017.
[13] Melikoglu M, Webb C. Use of Waste Bread to Produce Fermentation Products. Editors: Webb C, Kosseva M. Elsevier, Food Industry Wastes, 63-76, US, Elsevier, 2013.
[14] Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Toprak Mahsulleri Ofisi. "Ekmegini İsraf Etme: Arastirma Sonuclari 2013". Ankara, Türkiye, 2013.
[15] Artihaber. "Kaçak Fırın Sayısı Şaşırttı". https://www.artihaber27.com/haber/kacak-firin-sayisisasirtti-haberi-536.html (27.05.2018).
[16] Sterman JD. "System dynamics modeling: tools for learning in a complex world". California Management Review, 43(4), 8-25, 2001.
[17] Jittamai P, Kangwansura T. "A hospital admission planning model for operating room allocation under uncertain demand requirements". International Journal of Services and Operations Management, 23(2), 235-256, 2016.
[18] Wong HJ, Morra D, Wu RC, Caesar M, Abrams H. "Using system dynamics principles for conceptual modelling of publicly funded hospitals". Journal of the Operational Research Society, 63(1), 79-88, 2012.
[19] Chen JH, Jan TS. "A system dynamics model of the semiconductor industry development in Taiwan". Journal of the Operational Research Society, 56(10), 1141-1150, 2005.
[20] Chaerul M, Tanaka M, Shekdar AV. "A system dynamics approach for hospital waste management". Waste Management, 28(2), 442-449, 2008.
[21] Ding Z, Yi G, Tam VWY, Huang T. "A system dynamicsbased environmental performance simulation of construction waste reduction management in China". Waste Management, 51, 130-141, 2016.
[22] Cimren E, Bassi A, Fiksel J. "T21-Ohio, a system dynamics approach to policy assessment for sustainable development: a waste to profit case study". Sustainability, 2(9), 2814-2832, 2010.
[23] Akkerman R, Farahani P, Grunow M. "Quality, safety and sustainability in food distribution: a review of quantitative operations management approaches and challenges". Or Spectrum, 32(4), 863-904, 2010.
[24] Van Der Vorst JGAJ, Tromp S, Van DJ, Zee D. "Simulation modelling for food supply chain redesign; Integrated decision making on product quality, sustainability and logistics". International Journal of Production Research, 47(23), 6611-6631, 2009.
[25] Reiner G, Trcka M. "Customized supply chain design: Problems and alternatives for a production company in the food industry. A simulation based analysis". International Journal of Production Economics, 89(2), 217-229, 2004.
[26] Tako AA, Robinson S. "The application of discrete event simulation and system dynamics in the logistics and supply chain context". Decision Support Systems, 52(4), 802-815, 2012.
[27] Georgiadis P, Vlachos D, Iakovou E. "A system dynamics modeling framework for the strategic supply chain management of food chains". Journal of Food Engineering, 70(3), 351-364, 2005.
[28] Minegishi S, Thiel D. "System dynamics modeling and simulation of a particular food supply chain". Simulation Practice and Theory, 8(5), 321-339, 2000.
[29] Barlas Y. "Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics". System Dynamics Review: The Journal of the System Dynamics Society, 12(3), 183-210, 1996.
[30] Azabagaoglu O, Unakitan G. "Istanbul’da Ekmekcilik Sektoru, Sorunlar ve Cozum Onerileri". Istanbul Ticaret Odasi/Istanbul Dusunce Akademisi, Istanbul, Türkiye, 2018.
[31] Tasci R, Karabak S, Bolat M, Pehlivan A, Şanal T, Oğuz A, Kulen S, Gunes E, Albayrak M. "Ankara ilinde ekmek fırınlarının üretim yapısı ve ekmek israfı". Tarım Ekonomisi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 3(1), 1-16, 2017.
[32] Ertürk A, Arslantaş N, Sarıca D, Demircan V. "Isparta ili kentsel alanda ailelerin ekmek tüketimi ve israfı". Akademik Gıda, 13(4), 291-298, 2012.
[33] Tarar OM, UR-RAHMAN S, Din GMU, Murtaza MA. "Studies on the shelf life of bread using acidulants and their salts". Turkish Journal of Biology, 34(2), 133-138, 2010.
[34] Grassmann W. "Warm-up periods in simulation can be detrimental". Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, 22, 415-429, 2008.
[35] Toprak Mahsulleri Ofisi. "Turkiyede ekmek israfi arastirmasi". https://docplayer.biz.tr/29437-Turkiye-deekmek-israfi-arastirmasi.html (25.07.2018).
[36] Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Ticaret Bakanligi. "Türkiye İsraf Raporu". Ankara, Türkiye, 2018.
[37] Griffith R, O’Connell M, Smith K. "Relative prices, consumer preferences, and the demand for food". Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 31(1), 116-130, 2015.