Suriyeli Aleviler ve Mezhepsel Güvensizlik Politikaları: Halduncu Bir Bakış

2000 yılından beri modern Suriye siyasetinin yapısına ve gidişatına ilişkin çeşitli akademik analizler yapılmaktadır. Yine de 15 Mart 2011’de başlayan Suriye’deki siyasi kriz birçok kişi için sürpriz olmakla beraber hiç şüphesiz söz konusu krizin sebeplerine ve yaratacağı muhtemel etkilere ilişkin tartışmalar da artacaktır. Büyük ölçüde gözden kaçan veya yanlış değerlendirilen bir nokta ise Suriye’nin geleceğinin belirlenmesinde Suriyeli Alevi topluluğun oynadığı kritik roldür. Esad rejimine verilmekte olan Alevi desteği hiçbir şekilde garanti değildir. İbn-i Haldun’un, asabiyedeki ikinci aşama olan kavimlerin düşüşlerini açıklayan teorisine benzer bir şekilde Suriye’deki rejimin Alevi temelleri Esad yönetiminin ikinci kuşağı sırasında hiç durmaksızın sarsılmaktadır. Buna rağmen, Alevi topluluğunu Suriye rejimine bağlayan asıl etken, bu topluluğun duyduğu mezhepsel güvensizliktir. Esad rejimi kendi gücünü korumak adına hem Alevi güvensizliğine ihtiyaç duymaktadır hem de bu güvensizliği teşvik etmektedir. Yine de, Alevilerin, siyasi çıkmazdan kurtulmak ve “yeni” Suriye’nin oluşumuna serbestçe ve eşit bir biçimde iştirak etmek adına önlerinde bir fırsat ve bir emsal bulunmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Suriye, Aleviler, İbn Haldun, “Asabiye”, Mezhepsel Güvensizlik, “Arap Ayaklanması”

Syria’s Alawites and the Politics of Sectarian Insecurity: A Khaldunian Perspective

Since 2000 there has been varied academic analysis about the nature and direction of modern Syrian politics. The Syrian political crisis which began March 15, 2011 however, came as a surprise to most, and will no doubt spark a new round of debate about its causes and possible effects. One aspect that has been widely overlooked or misread is the critical role of the Syrian Alawite community in determining Syria’s future. Ongoing Alawite support to the Asad regime is by no means assured. The foundations of Alawite approval of the regime have steadily eroded during the second generation of Asad rule in a process, which resembles Ibn Khaldun’s theory for the decline of group ‘asabiyya in the second stage of dynasties. The one resilient factor that ties the Alawite community to the Syrian regime however, is sectarian insecurity. The Asad regime requires, and promotes, Alawite insecurity in order to preserve its power. Nevertheless, there remains an opportunity, and a precedent, for Alawites to break free from this political deadlock and participate equally and openly in a ‘new’ Syria

Keywords:

Syria, Alawites, Ibn Khaldun, “Asabiyya”, Sectarian Insecurity, “Arab Uprising”,

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