Ankara, Erbil, Bağdat: İkilemlerle Dolu İlişkiler

Ankara, Erbil ve Bağdat arasındaki ilişkiler üçgeni son birkaç yıl içinde gerçek bir devrim sürecinden geçmiştir. 20. yüzyılın büyük bir bölümünde Ankara’nın ortağı Bağdat iken, günümüzde Erbil olmuştur. Aslında bu büyük değişim çeşitli ekonomik, kültürel ve siyasi alanları da kapsamaktadır. Söz konusu çalışma şu sorulara cevap aramaktadır: Değişimden önce Ankara ve Bağdat arasındaki ilişkiler ne tür bir yapıya sahipti? Bu ilişkiler üçgenin üç ortağı arasında yaşanan değişim nasıl açıklanabilir? Söz konusu değişimde ABD’nin rolü nedir? Yaşanan değişimler ne ölçüde taktiksel, ne ölçüde stratejiktir? Bu çalışma tüm aktörler arasında bir paradigma değişimi olduğunu; görünüşe göre bu değişimde Türkiye’nin öncü, KBY’nin aktivist, Bağdat’ın ise tepki gösteren taraf olduğunu; ve son olarak da kötünün iyisini seçmek zorunda olan bütün aktörlerin tercihlerinin muhtemel sonuçları konusunda büyük bir ikilemde kaldıklarını savunmaktadır. Bölgedeki çalkantılı durum, Ortadoğu’daki farklı aktörler arasında değişen ittifaklar, ve Sunni-Şii bölünmesindeki artış söz konusu ikilemleri ön plana çıkarmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Paradigma değişimi, ikilemler, ilişkiler üçgeni, 1991 Körfez Savaşı ve 2003 Irak Savaşı, ABD’nin çekilmesi

Ankara, Erbil, Baghdad: Relations Fraught with Dilemmas

The triangle of relations between Ankara, Erbil and Baghdad has undergone a real revolution in the last few years. While for the greater part of the 20th century Ankara’s partner was Baghdad now it has become Erbil. Indeed, the dramatic change covers various economic, cultural and political spheres. This essay seeks to answer the following questions: What was the nature of the relations between Ankara and Baghdad before the shift? What is the explanation for the change among the three partners of the triangle? What is the role of the US in this change? To what extent are the changes tactical and to what extent strategic? This essay argues that there was a paradigmic shift among all players; that in this shift Turkey appears to be the initiator, the KRG the activist and Baghdad the reactive partner; and finally that all players having had to choose between two evils are now on a horn of a dilemma regarding the possible outcomes of their choice. The state of turmoil in the region, the changing alliances among the different players in the Middle East and the rise of the Sunni-Shi`i divide only serve to accentuate these dilemmas

Keywords:

Paradigmic shift, dilemmas, triangle of relations, the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 Iraqi War, The American withdrawal,

PDF

___

Abramowitz, Morton, “Remembering Turgut Özal: Some personal recollections”, Insight Turkey, Vol. 15, No.2, 2013.
Altunışık, Meliha Benli, ”The possibilities and limits of Turkey’s soft power in the Middle East”, Insight Turkey, Vol. 10. No.2, 2008, pp.41-54.
Bengio, Ofra, “Are Iraq and Turkey models for democratization”? The Middle East Quarterly, Vol. XIX, No.3, Summer 2012, pp.53- 62.
Bengio, Ofra, The Kurds of Iraq: Building a State within a State, (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2012).
Çandar, Cengiz, “Turgut Özal twenty years after: The man and the politician”, Insight Turkey, Vol. 15., No.2, 2013.
Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8 April 2009. http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090408_turkey_update. pdf
Cohen, Ariel, “Obama’s best friend? The Alarming evolution of US-Turkish relations”, Mideast Security and Policy Studies, BESA, No.100.
Gunes, Cengiz, The Kurdish National Movement in Turkey: From Protest to resistance (New York: Routledge, 2012).
Harod, Heidi Basch, “Kurdish Women of Turkey: Rewriting Their Historical Legacy”, (MA thesis, Tel Aviv University, 2013).
Hurriyet Daily News, 27 February 2013. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/rebel-win-could-spread-war-iraq. aspx?pageID=238&nid=41979
Idiz, Semih, Al Monitor, 3 March 2013. http://www.al-monitor. com/pulse/originals/2013/03/akp-sunni-foreign-policy-turkey-sectarianism.html
Karagül, Ibrahim, “Maliki ve PKK korkusu,” Yenisafak.com.tr, 10 May 2013, http://yenisafak.com.tr/yazarlar/IbrahimKaragul/ malikinin-pkk-korkusu/37621
Kurdistan Regional Government, 31 October 2009. http:// www.krg.org/a/d.aspx?r=223&l=12&s=02010100&a=32216 &s=010000.
Kurdnet, 17 January 2011. http://www.ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2011/1/state4537.htm
National Turk, 3 October 2012. http://www.nationalturk.com/ en/applause-for-kurdish-leader-barzani-at-akp-congress-condemned-by-turkish-opposition-26421
Pakistan Defense, 17 February 2013. http://www.defence.pk/forums/middle-east-africa/235610- iran-iraq-s-kurds-don-t-think-about-independence-closer-tiesturks.html
Polat, Rabia Karakaya, “The AKP and the Kurdish issue: What went wrong?”, SETA, Policy Brief, May 2008, No. 14.
Press TV, 29 April 2012. http://www.presstv.com/detail/238746.html
__________, 14 May 2013. http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/05 /14/303540/us-preparing-for-iraqi-kurds-to-split/
Radikal, 16 June 2013.
Rafaat, Aram, “The Kurdish and Iraqi Counter-Quest for Nationhood and the Transformation of Iraqi Kurdistan into a QuasiState”, (PHD Thesis, University of Adelaide, 2012).
The Kurdish Globe, 31 July 2012. http://www.kurdishglobe. net/display-article.html?id=E2564C82CB3871AD1E5DA48014 48F156
Today’s Zaman, 6 July 2010. http://www.todayszaman.com/ newsDetail_getNewsById.action?load=detay&link=215263
____________, 18 April 2012. http://www.todayszaman.com/ news-277894-krg-leader-barzani-visits-turkey-as-alliancewith-iraqi-kurds-deepens.html.
Today’s Zaman, 2 October 2012. http://www.todayszaman. com/news-294091-akp-and-iraqi-kurds-the-participation-ofmassoud-barzani-in-the-akp-general-congress-by-aziz-barzani*. html.
Vergnaud, Lara, Middle East, 9 May 2013. http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2013/05/09/iraq-rejects-pkkwithdrawal-but-lacks-leverage/
Voice of America, 18 April 2012. http://m.voanews.com/a/179 182.html
Yerlikaya, Simla, Yeni Komşumuz Kürdistan, (Istanbul: Timaş Yayınları, 2013)