AB-15 ve AB-28'de İşsizlik Histerezisi Hipotezinin Geçerliliği Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Çalışma

İşsizlik, azgelişmiş ülkeler için olduğu kadar gelişmiş ülkeler açısından da ana ekonomik sorunlar arasında yer almaktadır. 2004 yılına kadar çoğunlukla gelişmiş batı Avrupa ülkelerinin oluşturduğu Avrupa Birliği, sonraki yıllarda doğu Avrupa ülkelerinin de katılımıyla büyümüştür. Avrupa Birliği şimdiki haliyle farklı gelişmişlik seviyelerini barındıran ülkelerden oluşmaktadır. Avrupa Birliği geliştirdiği ekonomi politikalarında şüphesiz ki birliğin bu yapısını göz önünde bulundurmalıdır. Ekonomik bir şok sonrası artış gösteren işsizliğin geri eski seviyelerine dönmediği durumu gösteren işsizlik histerisinin varlığı, birlik ülkelerinin politika yapıcıları için özellikle işsizlikle mücadele yöntemleri açısından önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışma, 2001Q1-2019Q4 döneminde AB-15 ve AB-28 için işsizlik histerisini ortalama değerler üzerinden incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada, metodoloji olarak Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) ve Phillips Perron (PP) gibi geleneksel birim kök testlerinin yanı sıra Bozoklu vd. (2020) tarafından geliştirilen Kesirli Frekanslı Fourier ADF Birim Kök Testi kullanılmıştır. Veriler, Avrupa Birliği'nin istatistiklerinin yayınlandığı resmi web sitesi Eurostat veri havuzundan elde edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda, kullanılan her üç analize göre de histeri hipotezinin AB-15 ve AB-28’de geçerli olduğuna dair kanıtlar bulunmuştur. Çalışmada, bilindiği kadarıyla literatürde yer alan en güncel birim kök testi olan Kesirli Frekanslı Fourier ADF Birim Kök Testinin kullanılması literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İşsizlik Histerezisi, Naıru, İşsizlik, Artırılmış Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips Perron (PP), Kesirli Frekans Fourier ADF

An Econometric Study on the Validity of the Unemployment Hysteresis Hypothesis in EU-15 and EU-28

Unemployment is among the main economic problems not only for developed countries but also for underdeveloped countries. The European Union, which was mostly composed of developed Western European countries until 2004, has grown with the participation of Eastern European countries in the following years. In its current form, the European Union consists of countries with different levels of development. The European Union should undoubtedly consider this structure of the union in the economic policies it develops. The existence of unemployment hysteresis, which shows the situation in which unemployment, which increased after an economic shock, does not return to its former levels, is important for policymakers of the union countries, especially in terms of methods of combating unemployment. This study aims to examine unemployment hysteresis for the EU-15 and EU-28 over the average values in the 2001Q1-2019Q4 period. In addition to the traditional unit root tests of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP), the Fractional Frequency Fourier ADF Unit Root Test developed by Bozoklu et al. (2020) has been used as the methodology. The data are obtained from Eurostat, the official website of the European Union where statistics are published. As a result of the study, evidence is found that the hysteresis hypothesis is valid in EU-15 and EU-28 according to all three analyzes used. In the study, the use of the Fractional Frequency Fourier ADF Unit Root Test, which is the most up-to-date test, contributes to the literature.

Keywords:

Unemployment Hysteresis, NAIRU, Unemployment, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips Perron (PP), Fractional Frequency Fourier ADF,

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