Türkiye’de Nüfus Artışı ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki

Nüfus artışının ekonomik büyümeye etki edip etmediği sorusu, literatürde uzun süredir devam eden bir tartışmadır. Sonuçlar kullanılan verilere, ülkeye, tahmin tekniğine, yaş gruplarına ve ülkede uygulanan politikalara bağlı olarak değişiklik göstermektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'de kişi başına düşen GSYİH ile nüfus artışı arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi 1980-2021 yılları arasındaki yıllık verileri kullanarak incelemektir. Amacımıza ulaşmak için öncelikle Johansen eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmış ve ardından Vektör Hata Düzeltme modeli kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, nüfus büyümesi ve kişi başına düşen GSYİH büyümesi arasında uzun vadeli nedensel bir bağlantı olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, nüfus artışının Türkiye'de kişi başına düşen GSYİH'yı olumlu yönde etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekonomik Büyüme, Nüfus Artışı, Kişi Başına Düşen GSYİH

The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Development in Türkiye

The question of whether population growth promotes or harms economic growth is a long standing debate in the literature. The results vary depend on the data, the country, the estimation technique, age groups and the practices in the country. The goal of this work is hence to examine the causal relationship among GDP per capita and population growth in Turkey, applying annual data between 1980-2021. To achieve our objective, first of all, Johansen cointegration test is performed and then Vector Error Correction model is applied. The results demostrate that there is a long run causal direction between population and GDP per capita growth. Also, the results show that population growth impacts GDP per capita positively in Türkiye.

Keywords:

: Economic Growth, Population Growth, GDP per capita,

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