Ticari Dışa Açıklığın Bölgesel İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Bölgesel işsizlik oranları, bölgesel gelişmişliğin emek piyasasına ilişkin temel göstergesi olarak ele alınmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, işsizlikle mücadele politikaları yatırımların bölgelere yayılmasını da sağlamalıdır. Ayrıca, dış ticaret daha geniş piyasalar için üretimi beraberinde getireceğinden; istihdam düzeyi, işletmelerin dış ticarete yönlendirilmesiyle de arttırılabilir. Bu nedenle, bölgesel düzeyde ticari dışa açıklık ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de bölgesel ticari dışa açıklık ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişki, 2004-2014 dönemi için dinamik doğrusal panel veri analizi yöntemleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları bölgesel ticari dışa açıklık endeksleri ile işsizlik oranı arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğunu işaret etmiştir. Ayrıca, Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel nedensellik testi sonuçları, bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin çift yönlü olduğunu göstermiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, Türkiye’de bölgesel ticari dışa açıklığın arttırılmasına yönelik uygulanacak politikaların bölgesel işsizlik oranlarını azaltabileceği şeklinde yorumlanabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ticari Dışa Açıklık, Bölgesel İşsizlik, Panel Veri Analizi

Impact of Foreign Trade Openness on Regional Unemployment: The Case of Turkey

Regional unemployment rates are the main indicator of regional development related to the labor market. Therefore, policies to combat unemployment should be ensured to spread the investments to the regions. Besides, since foreign trade will enable production for larger markets, the level of employment may be increased by directing enterprises to foreign trade. Consequently, it is important to investigate the relationship between foreign trade openness and unemployment at the regional level. In this study, the relationship between regional foreign trade openness and unemployment in Turkey were investigated using dynamic linear panel data analysis methods for period 2004-2014. Analysis results indicated a negative relationship between the regional foreign trade openness and the unemployment rate. In addition, the results of Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test showed that the relationship between these two variables is bidirectional. According to these results, with the policies to increase regional trade openness, regional unemployment rate could be reduced in Turkey.

Keywords:

Foreign Trade Openness, Regional Unemployment, Panel Data Analysis,

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