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GELECEĞE DÖNÜK TIPA-STOK MODELİNİN TARTILI PARASAL BÜYÜKLÜKLER KULLANILARAK GEÇERLİĞİNİN TEST EDİLMESİ

Tıpa stok parasal büyüklükler modeli ekonomilerde geçici denge bozukluklarını savunmaktadır. Buna karşın, Divisia parasal büyüklükler modeli ise ekonomik bireylerin (devamlı olarak) ihtiyaçları olan parasal servis miktarına karar verdiklerini, ve bu kararında ekonomik (parasal) dengeyi oluşturduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Birbirine zıt gibi görünse de, özünde her iki teoride açıklanabilir bir para talebi fonksiyonuna dayanmaktadır. Bu makale bu iki teorinin dinamiklerinin birleştirilir olup olmadığını analiz etmek amacını taşımaktadır. Bunun için tıpa-stok parasal modellerinde Divisia tartılı para arzlarının geçerliliği Amerika Birleşik Devletleri verileri için test edilmiştir. Divisia tartılı para arzları en az toplam para arzları kadar reel para dengesi fonksiyonun 1970’lerden bu yana uğradığı kırılmayı iyileştirmekte başarılı olmaktadır. Kullanılan parasal büyüklükler içinde Divisia M1 en hakim parasal büyüklük olarak göze çarpmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Divisia, Para Talebi

TESTING THE VALIDITY OF FORWARD-LOOKING BUFFER STOCK MODEL USING WEIGHTED MONETARY AGGREGATES

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