BASİTLEŞTİRİLMİŞ BİR GENEL ÇÖZÜM KULLANILARAK THIRLWALL’UN SERMAYE AKIŞLI VE AYRIŞTIRILMIŞ İTHALAT SEKTÖRLÜ ÖDEMELER DENGESİ KISITLI BÜYÜME MODELİ: TÜRKİYE’NİN DURUMU, 1998-2019

Bu makalede, sermaye hareketleri ve yapısal değişim içeren BPCG modelinin geliştirilmiş bir versiyonunu toplam ithalat harcamalanı ara, tüketim ve sermaye ithalat kalemlerine ayrıştırarak 1998-2019 dönemde Türkiye ekonomisini incelemek için kullandık. Basitleştirilmiş Genel Çözüm (BGÇ) kullanarak Türkiyenin gelirinin büyüme oranını, her üç tip ithalat harcamaları için talebin gelir ve fiyat esneklikleri, zaman içinde değişen ihracat harcamaları bileşenleri ve ara, tüketim ve sermaye ithalatı harcamalarını kullanarak hesapladık. Bileşenlerdeki zaman içindeki değişimler, ithalat kalemlerinde, imalat sanayi ithalatında muhtemel değişiklikleri ve ticari dengenin finansman tipini modelde gösterebilmek için incelenmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisinin büyümesinin hemen hemen her zaman ticari dengeyi finanse eden yoğun sermaye girişleriyle birlikte olduğu gözlenilmiştir. 1998-2019 döneminde reel ihracat ortalamada %6.01 çoğalmasına rağmen, ekonominin büymesine olan katkısının mukayeseli olarak az olması, sanayi ihracatı artışında ara ithalat mallarının çoğalarak, Türkiye ‘nin Ödemeler Dengesi Kısıtlı gelirini sınırladığı bulunmuştur. İlaveten, reel kurda %0.49’luk bir bozulmanın çok az bir etkisi olduğu saptanmıştır. Özellikle sermaye hareketlerindeki ani değişimler hesaba katıldığında, politika perspektifinden gelecekteki iki veya üç yıla bakılırsa, kısa dönemli dalgalanmaların daha önemli olduğu vurgulanmıştır. Son olarak, Türkiye ekonomisi ile ilgili birinci stilistik gerçek 2001 ve 2009’daki gibi resesyonlardan önceki ani sermaye akımlarındaki değişimler ve ikinci olarak ise, Türkiye ekonomisinin büyüdüğü dönemler hep sermaye girişlerinin olduğu zamanlar etkili olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Thirlwall'un Ödemeler Dengesi Büyüme Modeli, Ara, Tüketim ve Sermaye ürünleri ithalatı, Sermaye Hareketleri, Üretim Büyümesinin Bileşenleri

THIRLWALL’S BPCG MODEL WITH CAPITAL FLOWS AND DISAGGREGATED IMPORTS SECTORS USING A SIMPLIFIED * GENERAL SOLUTION (SGS): THE CASE OF TURKEY, 1998-2019

In this paper, we considered an extended version of the BPCG model incorporating both the capital inflows and some possible structural changes by disaggregating total imports into intermediate, consumption and capital imports for the 1998-2019 period to study the Turkish economy. We calculated the rate of growth of Turkish income for the extended BPCG model based on a Simplified General Solution (SGS) using the estimated income and price elasticities of demands for three types of imports separately and the time-varying shares of exports earnings in total imports expenditures and the time-varying shares of intermediate, consumption and capital imports sectors. The time-varying shares are introduced in order to capture some structural changes in the composition of imports and the type of financing the trade deficit in addition to the changes in the composition of manufactured imports. We observed that the economic growth in Turkey was almost always accompanied with heavy capital inflows which helped the financing of the merchandise trade deficits. Even though the real exports increased by an average of 6.01% during 1998-2019 period, its relatively small contribution to the rate of growth of income was found to be due to the fact that we took into account the rise in intermediate imports attributable to an increase in manufactured exports confining the BP-Equilibrium growth rate of Turkish income. Moreover, we also found that an average of 0.49% deterioration in the real exchange rate (RER) had a very small effect. We also pointed out that the short-run variations may be more important from a policy perspective, where the policy-makers may be more concerned for the next two or three years by taking into account the short run influences of especially those of expected abrupt changes in capital flows. Finally, we noticed that a first stylized fact for the Turkish economy seemed to be abrupt decreases in capital flows before/during the recessions like those in 2001 and 2009 and a second stylized fact that the Turkish economy grows during the periods when heavy capital inflows increase, generally after the recessions.

Keywords:

Thirlwall's balance of payments equilibrium growth rate model, intermediate, consumption and capital goods imports, capital flows, components of growth of output,

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