Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Stratejisi Uygulama Sürecinin Analizi: 2002-2016 Yılları Örneklemi

Ekonomi politikalarının nihai amacı ekonomik refahı arttırabilmektir. Ekonomik refahın arttırılabilmesi gerekli olan temel unsurlardan biriside sürdürülebilir büyümenin sağlanabilmesidir. Bunun gerçekleştirilebilmesi ekonomik istikrarın sağlanmasıyla mümkündür. Ekonomik istikrarın ön koşulu ise fiyat istikrarıdır. 21. yüzyılda, merkez bankalarının yaşadığı en önemli sorunlardan birisi ekonomik istikrarı sağlayabilmek için para politikasında hangi stratejinin izlenmesi gerektiğidir. Enflasyon, ekonomik, sosyal ve siyasal yapıyı tahrip eden ciddi bir sorundur. Ülkeler tarihsel süreçte, yıllarca bu sorunla mücadele etmeye çalışmışlar ve sürekli farklı stratejiler geliştirmişlerdir. Enflasyon hedeflemesi, 1990’lardan sonra popüler hale gelen bir stratejidir. Bu strateji resmi olarak ilk kez 1990 yılında Yeni Zelanda tarafından uygulanmaya başlamıştır. Türkiye yaklaşık 30 yıllık bir süreçte sürekli yüksek ve kronik enflasyon sorunuyla yani fiyat istikrarsızlığıyla mücadele etmek zorunda kalmış ve bu amaçla pek çok istikrar programı uygulamıştır. Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Stratejisinin gerek gelişmiş gerekse gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki uygulama sonuçlarının olumlu olması TCMB’yi etkilemiş ve banka 2002 yılı başında para politikasında nihai hedefinin enflasyon hedeflemesine geçmek olduğunu açıklamıştır. Bu çalışmada önce enflasyon hedeflemesinin kavramsal ve teorik çerçevesi anlatılmış daha sonra Türkiye’deki uygulama süreci çoklu regresyon analizi ile incelenmiştir.The ultimate goal of economic policies can increase economic welfare. One of the essential elements that can increase economic prosperity is to ensure sustainable growth. This can only be achieved if economic stability is achieved. Prerequisite of economic stability is price stability. In the 21st century, one of the most important problems that central banks face is which strategy should be monitored in monetary policy to ensure economic stability. Inflation is a serious problem that destroys economic, social and political construction. Throughout history, countries have tried to combat this problem for years and have constantly developed different strategies. Inflation targeting is a strategy that has become popular after the 1990s. His strategy officially began to be implemented by New Zealand in 1990 for the first time. Turkey has been forced to struggle with constant high and chronic inflation problems, that is, price instability in a period of nearly 30 years and has implemented many stabilization programs for this purpose. As the Inflation Targeting Strategy both developed and developing countries have positive effects on CBRT, the bank announced in early 2002 that its ultimate goal in monetary policy was to move towards inflation targeting. Turkey has been implementing this strategy since 2002. In this study, the conceptual and theoretical framework of inflation targeting is explained than the application process in Turkey were examined by multiple regression analysis.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Para Politikası, Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Yaklaşımı, Çoklu Regresyon Analizi

Analysis of The Inflation Targeting Strategy Implementation Process in Turkey: 2002-2016 Years Sample

One of the essential elements for increasing economic prosperity is sustainable growth. This can be achieved by ensuring economic stability and thus price stability. Countries have tried to combat the problem of inflation in the historical process and have developed different strategies on a continuous basis. Inflation targeting is a strategy that has become popular after the 1990s. His strategy officially began to be implemented by New Zealand in 1990 for the first time. Turkey has about 30 -40 year period at a consistently high and was forced to combat chronic inflation problem and apply this purpose, many stabilization program. As the Inflation Targeting Strategy both developed and developing countries have positive effects on CBRT, the bank announced in early 2002 that its ultimate goal in monetary policy was to move towards inflation targeting. Turkey has been implementing this strategy since 2002. In this study, the conceptual and theoretical framework of inflation targeting is explained than the application process in Turkey were examined by multiple regression analysis.

Keywords:

Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting Strategy, Multiple Regresion Analysis,

PDF

___

ALBERT, P., BRİGHT ADDİYİAH, O., ve CHARLES, B. (2014), Effects of Inflation Targeting Policyon Inflation Rates and Gross Domestic Product in Ghana, European Journal of Business and Management, 54-60.
ALPARSLAN, M., ve ATAMAN ERDÖNMEZ, P. (2000), Enflasyon Hedeflemesi, Bankacılar Dergisi, Aralık, Sayı 35.
BATİNİ, N., ve LAXTON, D. (2006) Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experienve of Emerging Markets, Working Papers, No.406, Central Bank of Chile, December, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu
BEN ROMDHANE, I. B., ve MEMSİ, S. (2014), Assessing the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting: Evidence from OECD Economies, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, No.60108, November , https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
CARARE, A., SCHAECHTER, A., STONE, M., ve ZELMER, M. (2002), Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting, IMF Working Paper, WP/02/102, June, https://papers.ssrn.com.
CARRASCO, C. A. (2011), Inflation Targeting and Economic Performance: The Case of Mexico, Panoeconomicus, ss.675-692, DOI: 10.2298/PAN1105675C.
CROCE, E., ve KHAN, M. S. (2000), Monetary Regimes and Inflation Targeting, Finance and Development, September, Volume 37, No.3
DA SİLVA, M. E. A., ve PORTUGAL, M. S. (2002), Inflation Targeting in Brazil: An Empirical Evaluation, Revista de Economia, 9,2, ss.85-122.
DEBELLE, G., MASSON, P., SAVASTANO, M., ve SHARMA, S. (1998), Inflation Targeting as a Framework for Monetary Policy, IMF, Economic Issues No.15 October.
EESEL, H., ve ÖZATAY, F. (2008) Inflation Targeting in Turkey, Working Paper 445, October, https://econpapers.repec.org .
GENC, I. H., LEE, M., RODRİGUEZ, C. O., ve LUTZ, Z. (2007) Time Series Analysis of Inflation Targeting in Selected Countries, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Vol.10, No.1, ss15-27, February, https://www.tandfonline.com.
GOSSELİN, M. A. (2007) Central Bank Performance Under Inflation Targeting, Bank Of Canada, Staff Working Paper / Document de Travil 2007-18, ISSN 1701-9397, March, https://www.bankofcanada.ca.
IMF (2002), Macroeconomic Management Programs and Policies; Inflation Targeting, Scarlata J. (April 19).
JENDOUBI, H. (2016), Inflation Targeting and Macro-Economic Performance: The Case of Emerging Countries, Journal of Economics and Development Studies, Vol.4, No.2, ss.61-74, ISSN: 2334-2382 (Print), 2334-2390 (Online).
KARTAL, F. (2011), Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Stratejisi ve Para Politikasının Görünümü, Nisan, Yıl 25(91), http://dergipark.gov.tr
KASA, K. (2001), Will Inflation Targeting Work in Developing Countries?, FRBSF Economic Letter, Jenuary, https://www.frbsf.org
LEVİN, A. T., NATALUCCİ, F. M., ve PİGER, J. M. (2004), The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review, July-August, 86,4,ss.51-80
MASSON PAUL, R., SAVASTANO, M. A., ve SHARMA, S. (1997) The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/130, October, http://www.imf.org.
MİSHKİN, F. S. (1999), International Experiences With Different Monetary Pılicy Regimes, Journal of Monetary Economics, No.43.
MİSHKİN, F. S., ve SAVASTANO, M. A. (2000), Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America, NBER Working Paper No. 7617, Marc, http://www.nber.org
ÖZATAY, F. (2009), Türkiye’de 2000-2008 döneminde para politikası, İktisat İşletme ve Finans 24 (275) 2009 : 37-65, February, DOI: 10.3848/iif.2009.275.1974
ÖZTÜRK, S. (2009), Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Yaklaşımı: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Cilt:16, Sayı:1 Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Manisa
PETURSSON, T. G. (2004), The effects of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance, Central Bank of Iceland, Working Paper, No.23, June, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org
SVENSSON, L. E. O. (2007), Inflation Targeting, CEPS Working Paper No.144, May, Princeton University.
TCMB (2004), 2005 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası, Sayı: 2004-59, Ankara, Aralık, http://tcmb.gov.tr
TCMB (2005), Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejiminin Genel Çerçevesi ve 2006 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası, Ankara, Aralık, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
TCMB (2014), 2015 Yılı Para ve Kur Politikası, Aralık, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr.
TCMB (2018), Enflasyon Hedefleri, Ankara, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr.