DÖVİZ KURU DALGALANMALARI VE PETROL FİYATI ŞOKLARININ TÜRKİYE’NİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMESİ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Petrol ve petrolden üretilen mal ve hizmetler, çoğu gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke için gerekli olan ve kullanılan bir girdi niteliğindedir. Türkiye için petrol kaynaklarının yetersiz olması ülkeyi ithalata bağımlı hale getirmiş ve cari açığın ortaya çıkmasında önemli bir faktördür. Petrol ve petrol ürünleri, ithalatın yaklaşık %20’sini oluşturmaktadır. Bu da ülkenin ekonomik büyümesini olumsuz etkileyen bir faktördür. Ayrıca daha önce yapılan çalışmalarda petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların döviz kurlarında oynaklığa neden olduğu yönünde bulgulara da rastlanmıştır. Bu çalışmada özellikle kriz dönemlerinde petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen aşırı oynaklığın ve döviz kurundaki dalgalanmaların Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesine ne derece olumsuz etki yaptığı ekonometrik yöntemlerle ortaya koyulmaya çalışılmıştır

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