The effects of agricultural liberalization on sectoral water use: a cge model for Turkey

Bu çalışmanın amacı, suyu girdi olarak alan bir hesaplanabilir genel denge (HGD) modeli oluşturarak tarımsal tarifelerdeki bir düşüşün Türkiye’nin dış ticareti ve tarımsal su kullanımları üzerine etkilerini incelemektir. Çalışma sonucunda, tarımsal liberalizasyon ile Türkiye’nin net tarım ithalatçısı konumuna geldiği, tarımsal üretimin ve buna bağlı olarak da tarımsal su kullanımının azaldığı gözlenmiştir. Aynı simülasyon tarımsal üretkenliğin arttığı varsayımı altında tekrarlanmış, bu durumda tarife düşüşünün neden olduğu dış ticaretteki bozulmanın telafi edildiği görülmüştür. Bu senaryo altında, tüm tarım sektörlerinde üretim ve ihracat artarken su kullanımı meyve sektöründe artmış diğer tarım sektörlerinde ise düşmüştür.

Tarımsal liberalizasyonun sektörel su kullanımları üzerine etkisi: Türkiye için bir hgd modeli

The aim of this study is to construct a water-CGE model for Turkey in order to examine the effects of a reduction in agricultural tariff rates on Turkey’s international trade and on agricultural water use. With agricultural trade liberalization Turkey becomes a net importer of agricultural products. The agricultural production declines and results in a reduction in the agricultural water use. The same simulation is considered with an increase in agricultural productivity. The trade distortions resulting from tariff reductions are compensated. Water use in the fruit sector increases while in other agricultural sectors it declines although the production and net exports in all agricultural sectors increase.

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