The ARDL approach to cointegration analysis of tourism demand in Turkey with Greece as the substitution destination

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin 13 ülke île turizm talebi modelini incelemektedir. Bu ülkeler Avusturya, Belçika, Bulgaristan, Danimarka, Fransa, Almanya, Hollanda, İtalya, Rusya, İsveç, İsviçre, İngiltere ve Amerika'dır. Çalışmanın amacı Türkiye'nin turizm talebini belirleyen faktörlerle, kullanılan modeldeki eşbütünleşik ilişkisini incelenmektir. Bunun için Pesaran ve Pesaran (1997)'nin ARDL modeli, özellikle kısa zaman serilerine daha uygun olduğu için kullanılacaktır. Çalışmanın sonucu olarak modeldeki değişkenler arasında uzun vadede istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı eşbütünleşik ilişki bulunmuştur. Sonuçlarda, hem kısa zamanda hem de uzun zamanda, turizm talebini etkileyen en belirgin faktör olarak turist gelişi bulunmuştur. Ayrıca CUSUM ve CUSUMSQ testleri modelin birçok ülkede istikrarlı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türkiye

Türkiye'deki turizm talebinin ARDL yaklaşımıyla eşbütünleşik analizi: İkame edilecek istikamet olarak Yunanistan

This paper estimates tourism demand model for Turkey from 13 countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States. The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of demand for Turkey’s tourism and to examine cointegration relationships in the considered model, over the period from 1996 to 2006 year on the monthly basis. This paper uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach advocated by Pesaran and Pesaran (1997), which is more appropriate for studies with small samples. From our results we found evidence at the high significance level of a long-run cointegration relationships among the variables. The study shows that the most significant impact on the tourism demand in the long-run as well as in the short-run has income of tourist arrivals. In addition, the applied CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests confirm the stability of the tourism demand model in most of considered countries.

Keywords:

Turkey,

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