Reassessing the heterogeneity hypothesis in unemployment dynamics
İşsizlik dalgalanmalarının açıklanması uzun süreli bir araştırma hedefidir. Araştırmanın bu yönü son zamanlarda, Shimerın (2012) Mortensen-Pissarides Denge Arama ve Eşleştirme Modelinin gözlemlenen işsizlik dalgalanmalarını açıklamakta başarısız olduğunu kanıtlamasıyla, büyük ilgi çekmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Sider (1985) ve Bakerı (1992) takip ederek, işsizlikten dışarı ve işsizlik içersine olan dalgalanmaları yeniden değerlendirerek, Shimerın sonuçlarının, farklı bir bakış açısından, hala geçerli olup olmadığını öğrenmektir. 1996 ve 2012 yılları arasındaki veriyi kullanarak, heterojenlik hipotezinin hala geçersiz olduğunu fakat işsizlik ve ortalama işsizlik süresi arasındaki karşılıklı etkileşim düzeyinin, Shimerın sonuçları üzerinde bir şüphe oluşturacak şekilde, güçsüzleştiğini gösterdik.
İşsizlik dinamiklerinde heterojenlik hipotezinin yeniden değerlendirilmesi
Abstract Investigation of the sources of unemployment fluctuations has been a longstanding research objective. This line of research has attracted a great attention recently, because, as Shimer (2012) has confirmed that the celebrated Mortensen-Pissarides equilibrium search and matching model fails to explain the observed unemployment fluctuations for the USA. The aim of this study is to reexamine the flows into/out of unemployment by following Sider (1985) and Baker (1992) in order to find out whether Shimers results are still valid from a different perspective. Using the 19962012 data, we show that the heterogeneity hypothesis is still rejected but the degree of co-movement between the rate of unemployment and the aggregate expected duration is somewhat weaker, which casts doubt on Shimers conclusions. Keywords: Heterogeneity hypothesis, unemployment duration, business cycles.
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- ISSN: 1010-9935
- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 2018
- Yayıncı: ODTÜ İİBF