Measurement of NAIRU: What is new and what is next for the Turkish economy?

Türkiye ekonomisi küresel kriz sonrasında pek çok riske maruz kalmıştır. Bu riskler, daha çok, gelişmiş ülkelerdeki alışılmadık para politikası uygulamaları, Euro bölgesindeki borç krizi ve küresel krize karşı uzunca bir süre uygulanan olağanüstü önlemlerden çıkış gibi dış etkenlerden kaynaklanmıştır. Ancak, bu risklere karşı alınan politika önlemleri Türkiye ekonomisinde belirgin bir yavaşlamaya neden olarak, orta gelir tuzağı sorununu gündeme getirmiştir. Buna ek olarak, Türkiye, 2012 yılından itibaren Suriye'deki iç savaşa bağlı olarak yoğun mülteci akımına uğramış ve bu zorunlu göç emek piyasası ve genel fiyat düzeyi üzerinde çeşitli etkilere sebep olmuştur. Buna göre, bu çalışmada söz konusu süreçte değişmiş olduğu düşünülen enflasyonu artırmayan işsizlik oranı NAIRU hesaplanmaya çalışılmaktadır. NAIRU istikrarlı enflasyon oranıyla uyumlu işsizlik düzeyini ifade ettiği için para politikasının duruşu açısından önemli bir göstergedir. Yapılan analiz, NAIRU'nun bu gelişmeler doğrultusunda işsizlik oranından daha fazla arttığını, enflasyon oranının ise bu süreçte görece istikrarlı kaldığını göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak, son dönemde enflasyonun işsizlik açığına olan duyarlılığının durağan seyretmesi, işsizlik açığının enflasyona olan katkısının azaldığını ima etmektedir. Bu durum emek piyasasının yapısı ve para politikasının yürütülmesi açısından önemli çıkarımlar ifade etmektedir. Ayrıca, NAIRU'yu artıran mülteci akımının, enflasyonu baskılayan etkilere sahip olması da para politikası uygulamalarında göz önünde bulundurulmalıdır. Öte yandan, politika tasarımında bu sonuçların kısa vadeli bakış açısına dayandığı ve uzun vadeli etkilerin -- özellikle mülteci akımına ilişkin olarak-- daha geniş kapsamlı olacağı dikkate alınmalıdır.

Türkiye ekonomisi için NAIRU hesaplaması

Türkiye ekonomisi küresel kriz sonrasında pek çok riske maruz kalmıştır. Bu riskler, daha çok, gelişmiş ülkelerdeki alışılmadık para politikası uygulamaları, Euro bölgesindeki borç krizi ve küresel krize karşı uzunca bir süre uygulanan olağanüstü önlemlerden çıkış gibi dış etkenlerden kaynaklanmıştır. Ancak, bu risklere karşı alınan politika önlemleri Türkiye ekonomisinde belirgin bir yavaşlamaya neden olarak, orta gelir tuzağı sorununu gündeme getirmiştir. Buna ek olarak, Türkiye, 2012 yılından itibaren Suriye’deki iç savaşa bağlı olarak yoğun mülteci akımına uğramış ve bu zorunlu göç emek piyasası ve genel fiyat düzeyi üzerinde çeşitli etkilere sebep olmuştur. Buna göre, bu çalışmada söz konusu süreçte değişmiş olduğu düşünülen enflasyonu artırmayan işsizlik oranı NAIRU hesaplanmaya çalışılmaktadır. NAIRU istikrarlı enflasyon oranıyla uyumlu işsizlik düzeyini ifade ettiği için para politikasının duruşu açısından önemli bir göstergedir. Yapılan analiz, NAIRU’nun bu gelişmeler doğrultusunda işsizlik oranından daha fazla arttığını, enflasyon oranının ise bu süreçte görece istikrarlı kaldığını göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak, son dönemde enflasyonun işsizlik açığına olan duyarlılığının durağan seyretmesi, işsizlik açığının enflasyona olan katkısının azaldığını ima etmektedir. Bu durum emek piyasasının yapısı ve para politikasının yürütülmesi açısından önemli çıkarımlar ifade etmektedir. Ayrıca, NAIRU’yu artıran mülteci akımının, enflasyonu baskılayan etkilere sahip olması da para politikası uygulamalarında göz önünde bulundurulmalıdır. Öte yandan, politika tasarımında bu sonuçların kısa vadeli bakış açısına dayandığı ve uzun vadeli etkilerin — özellikle mülteci akımına ilişkin olarak— daha geniş kapsamlı olacağı dikkate alınmalıdır.

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