İSTANBUL İLÇELERİNİN DEPREM RİSK ANALİZİ VE HASAR DEĞERLENDİRMESİ

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı deprem riskine ve mevcut yapıların bölgedeki potansiyel bir depreme karşı zayıflıklarına dayalı olarak İstanbul'un sismo-tektonik özelliklerini elde etmektir. Farklı geri dönüş süreleri ile olası deprem büyüklükleri nedeniyle oluşacak yapısal hasarın dağılımıyla İstanbul'un riskli alanları belirlenmiş ve İstanbul ili için seçilen 30 ilçe için risk haritaları üretilmiştir. Gumbel-Gutenberg-Richter yaklaşımlarını kullanarak, İstanbul'da olası bir depremin öngörülen periyotta maksimum büyüklüğünü tahmin edebilmek için, 25, 50, 75 ve 100 yıllık dört farklı dönüş periyoduna göre dört farklı senaryo deprem geliştirerek, İstanbul için deprem riski elde edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, bu çalışma tahmin edilen olası depremlerin yardımıyla İstanbul'un seçilmiş ilçelerindeki hasar dağılımını ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Deprem, risk haritası, olasılıklı sismik analiz, hasar tahmini

EARTHQUAKE RISK ANALYSIS AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL

The main purpose of this study is to obtain the seismo-tectonic characteristics of Istanbul, based on earthquake risk and vulnerabilities of existing structures against a potential earthquake in the region. The hazardous areas of Istanbul with the distribution of structural damage due to different possible earthquake magnitudes with different return periods are determined and hazard maps are produced for the selected 30 districts of Istanbul. By using the Gumbel-Gutenberg-Richter approaches, in order to estimate the maximum magnitude of a possible earthquake to occur in Istanbul within a prescribed period, four different scenario earthquakes are developed according to four different return periods of 25, 50, 75 and 100 years and the earthquake risk for the province of city of Istanbul is obtained. As a result, this study reveals the damage distribution in the selected districts of Istanbul by the help of the estimated possible future earthquakes.

Keywords:

Earthquake, hazard map, probabilistic seismic analysis, damage estimation,

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