SEÇİLİ GELİŞMİŞ ÜLKELERDE COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN FİNANSAL PİYASALAR ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Covid-19 pandemisinin, benzeri görülmemiş bir salgın ve yetersiz veri olmasından dolayı yapılan çalışmalar virüsün derinliği ve uzunluğu hakkında yeterince öngörüde bulunamamaktadırlar. Hükümetler tarafından alınan önlemler ve sağlık koşullarının bozulması nedeniyle salgın koşulları başta üretim, dağıtım ve tedarik zincirleri olmak üzere tüm sektörleri etkilemiştir. Salgından en hızlı etkilenen kesim finansal piyasalardır. Bu çalışma, 3 Şubat 2020- 20 Eylül 2021 tarihleri arasında günlük verileri kullanarak Covid-19 vakaları ve CDS primlerinin borsa endeksleri üzerindeki etkileri incelemiştir. Sonuç olarak, seçili ülkelerde (İngiltere, Fransa ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri) Covid-19 vakaları ve CDS primleri borsa endeksleri üzerinde negatif etki göstermektedir. Covid-19 vakalarının borsa endeksleri üzerinde etkisinin en yüksek olduğu ülke İngiltere’dir. Risk pirimlerinin borsa endeksleri üzerinde en düşük olduğu ülke İngiltere ve en yüksek olduğu ülke Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’dir. Daha da çarpıcı olan, salgının belirsizliğinden kaynaklı CDS primlerinin borsa getirileri üzerindeki negatif etkisi Covid-19 vakalarından daha güçlüdür. Dolayısıyla, hükümetler finansal piyasalarda pandemi kaynaklı belirsizliğin azaltılması yönünde politikalar geliştirmelidir.

THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON FINANCIAL MARKETS ON SELECTED DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Studies cannot provide adequate predictions regarding the depth and length of the Covid-19 virus because the Covid-19 pandemic is an unprecedented epidemic in terms of the lack of data gathered so far. The measures taken by governments and the deterioration of human health condition have affected all sectors; especially production, distribution and supply chains. The sector most severely inflicted by the epidemic is the financial markets. This study examined the effects of Covid-19 cases and CDS (Credit Default Swap) premiums on financial markets benefitting from the daily data collected between February 3, 2020 and September 20, 2021. As a result, it was seen that Covid-19 cases and CDS premiums posed a negative impact on stock market indices in selected countries (England, France and the United States). The country with the highest impact of Covid-19 cases on stock market indices is England. The country with the lowest CDS premiums on stock market indices is England and the country with the highest is the United States. More strikingly, the negative impact posed by CDS premiums on stock market returns due to the uncertainty of the epidemic was analyzed to be stronger than that posed by Covid-19 cases. Thus, governments should develop policies to reduce pandemic-induced uncertainty in the financial markets.

Kaynakça

Açikgöz, Ö., & Günay, A. (2020). The early impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global and Turkish economy. Turkish journal of medical sciences, 50(SI-1), 520-526.

Adigüzel, M. (2020). Covid-19 pandemisinin Türkiye ekonomisine etkilerinin makroekonomik analizi. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(37), 191-221.

Albulescu, C. T. (2021). COVID-19 and the United States financial markets’ volatility. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101699

Ali, M., Alam, N., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2020). Coronavirus (COVID-19)—An epidemic or pandemic for financial markets. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 100341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100341

Anton, S. G., & Afloarei Nucu, A. E. (2020). Sovereign Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets in Central and Eastern European Countries: Are Feedback Effects at Work?. Entropy, 22(3), 338. https://doi.org/10.3390/e22030338

Ashraf, B. N. (2020). Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets. Journal of behavioral and experimental finance, 27, 100371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100371

Atkeson, A. (2020). What will be the economic impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough estimates of disease scenarios (No. w26867). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26867

Barbieri Góes, M. C., & Gallo, E. (2021). Infection is the cycle: unemployment, output and economic policies in the COVID-19 pandemic. Review of Political Economy, 33(3), 377-393. https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2020.1861817

Berger, D. W., Herkenhoff, K. F., & Mongey, S. (2020). An seir infectious disease model with testing and conditional quarantine (No. w26901). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26901

Bethune, Z. A., & Korinek, A. (2020). Covid-19 infection externalities: Trading off lives vs. livelihoods (No. w27009). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27009

Carreño, I., Dolle, T., Medina, L., & Brandenburger, M. (2020). The implications of the Covid-19 pandemic on trade. European Journal of Risk Regulation, 11(2), 402-410. https://doi.org/10.1017/err.2020.48

Chan, K. C., Fung, H. G., & Zhang, G. (2009). On the relationship between Asian credit default swap and equity markets. Journal of Asia Business Studies. Vol.4 No.1, pp.3-12. https://doi.org/10.1108/15587890980000414

Ericsson, J., Jacobs, K., & Oviedo, R. (2009). The determinants of credit default swap premia. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 44(1), 109-132. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109009090061

Estrada, M. A. R., Koutronas, E., & Lee, M. (2020). Stagpression: The economic and financial impact of Covid-19 Pandemic. SSRN Electronic Journal· 15 (1),

Fang, J., Collins, A., & Yao, S. (2021). On the Global COVID-19 Pandemic and China’s FDI. Journal of Asian Economics, 74, 101300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101300

Farrell, D., Ganong, P., Greig, F., Liebeskind, M., Noel, P., & Vavra, J. (2020). Consumption effects of unemployment insurance during the covid-19 pandemic. Available at SSRN 3654274. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3654274

Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) on the world economy. IESE Business School Working Paper No. WP-1240-E, Available at SSRN: 3557504. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557504

Francis, D. (2020). Unemployment and the gendered economy in South Africa after Covid-19. Transformation: Critical Perspectives on Southern Africa, 104(1), 103-112.

Glover, A., Heathcote, J., Krueger, D., & Ríos-Rull, J. V. (2020). Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic (No. w27046). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27046

Gruszczynski, L. (2020). The COVID-19 pandemic and international trade: Temporary turbulence or paradigm shift?. European Journal of Risk Regulation, 11(2), 337-342. https: // doi.org/10.1017/err.2020.29

Gupta, M., Abdelmaksoud, A., Jafferany, M., Lotti, T., Sadoughifar, R., & Goldust, M. (2020). COVID‐19 and economy. Dermatologic therapy. 33(4), e13329-e13329. https://doi.org/10.1111/dth.13329

Hayakawa, K., & Mukunoki, H. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 60, 101135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101135

Hossain, M. (2020). The effect of the Covid-19 on sharing economy activities. Journal of Cleaner Production, 280, 124782. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124782 https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12349

ILO (2020). Covid-19 Monitoring Report. International Labor Organization. https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/coronavirus/impacts-and-responses/WCMS_767028/lang--en/index.htm

ILO (2021). Covid-19 Monitoring Report. International Labor Organization. https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/coronavirus/impacts-and-responses/WCMS_824092/lang--en/index.htm

Jackson, J. K., Weiss, M. A., Schwarzenberg, A. B., & Nelson, R. M. (2020). Global Economic Effects of COVID-19. Congressional Research Service, July 21, 2020.

Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3

Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. OUP Oxford. Kara, E. (2020). COVID-19 pandemisi: İşgücü üzerindeki etkileri ve istihdam tedbirleri. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(5), 269-282.

Karim, M. R., Islam, M. T., & Talukder, B. (2020). COVID-19′ s impacts on migrant workers from Bangladesh: In search of policy intervention. World Development, 136, 105123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105123

Kawohl, W., & Nordt, C. (2020). COVID-19, Unemployment, and Suicide. The Lancet Psychiatry, 7(5), 389-390. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2215-0366(20)30141-3

Kemp-Benedict, E. (2020). Macroeconomic impacts of the public health response to COVID-19. Available at SSRN 3593294. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3593294

Khaldun, R.I., Fita, G. A., Utami, A. N. F., & Tahawa, T. H. B. (2021). Global Trade Restrictions during Covid-19 Pandemic. International Journal of Educational Research & Social Sciences, 2(1), 173-177.

Kollias, C., Mylonidis, N., & Paleologou, S. M. (2012). The nexus between exchange rates and stock markets: evidence from the euro-dollar rate and composite European stock indices using rolling analysis. Journal of Economics and Finance, 36(1), 136-147. https://doi.org/10.51601/ijersc.v2i1.44

Kuloğlu, A. (2021). Covid-19 Krizinin Petrol Fiyatları Üzerine Etkisi. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(3), 710-727.

Lilley, A., & Rogoff, K. (2020). Negative interest rate policy in the post Covid-19 world. VOX, CEPR Policy Portal, April, 17, 28.

McKee, M., & Stuckler, D. (2020). If the world fails to protect the economy, COVID-19 will damage health not just now but also in the future. Nature Medicine, 26(5), 640-642.

Merlin, M. L., & Chen, Y. (2021). Analysis of the factors affecting electricity consumption in DR Congo using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) estimation Approach. Energy, 121025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121025

Nicola, M., Alsafi, Z., Sohrabi, C., Kerwan, A., Al-Jabir, A., Iosifidis, C., ...& Agha, R. (2020). The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus and COVID-19 pandemic: a review. International journal of surgery. 78, 185-193.

Nordt, C., Warnke, I., Seifritz, E., & Kawohl, W. (2015). Modelling suicide and unemployment: a longitudinal analysis covering 63 countries, 2000–11. The Lancet Psychiatry, 2(3), 239-245. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2215-0366(14)00118-7

Osterwald-Lenum, M. (1992). A note with quantiles of the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood cointegration rank test statistics. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 54(3), 461-472.

Ozili, P. K., & Arun, T. (2020). Spillover of COVID-19: impact on the Global Economy. Available at SSRN 3562570. Park, J. Y. (1992). Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, Vol. 60, No. 1, pp. 119-143. https://doi.org/2951679

Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297545

Saboori, B., Sapri, M., & bin Baba, M. (2014). Economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development)'s transport sector: A fully modified bi-directional relationship approach. Energy, 66, 150-161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.12.048

Sansa, N. A. (2020). The Impact of the COVID-19 on the Financial Markets: Evidence from China and USA. Electronic Research Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vol 2, Issue II.

Sazmaz, E. B., Ozkok, I., Simsek, H., & Gulseven, O. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 on European Unemployment and Labor Market Slack. Available at SSRN 3766376. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3766376

Schoenfeld, J. (2020). The invisible risk: Pandemics and the financial markets. Tuck School of Business Working Paper No. 3567249, Available at SSRN: 3567249. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3567249

Sensoy, A., Sobaci, C., Sensoy, S., & Alali, F. (2014). Effective transfer entropy approach to information flow between exchange rates and stock markets. Chaos, solitons & fractals, 68, 180-185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2014.08.007

Sharif, A., Aloui, C., & Yarovaya, L. (2020). COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach.

International Review of Financial Analysis, 70, 101496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101496

Song, L., & Zhou, Y. (2020). The COVID‐19 Pandemic and Its Impact on the Global Economy: What Does It Take to Turn Crisis into Opportunity?. China & World Economy, 28(4), 1-25.

Şahin, A., Tasci, M., & Yan, J. (2020). The unemployment cost of COVID-19: How high and how long?. Economic Commentary, (2020-09). https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202009

Topcu, M., & Gulal, O. S. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets. Finance Research Letters, 36, 101691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101691

Topcu, M., Yagli, I., & Emirmahmutoglu, F. (2021). COVID-19 and stock market volatility: A time-varying perspective. Economics Bulletin, 41(3), 1681-1689.

Vidya, C. T., & Prabheesh, K. P. (2020). Implications of COVID-19 pandemic on the global trade networks. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2408-2421. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1785426

Wang, W., Miao, W., Liu, Y., Deng, Y., & Cao, Y. (2022). The impact of COVID-19 on the ride-sharing industry and its recovery: Causal evidence from China. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 155, 128-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.10.005

Wei, X., & Han, L. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on transmission of monetary policy to financial markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74, 101705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101705

WHO (2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). World Health Organizations. https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_2

Worldometers (2022). Covıd-19 Coronavırus Pandemic Cases. Worldometers. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

Zhang, D., Hu, M., & Ji, Q. (2020). Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19. Finance Research Letters, 36, 101528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101528

Zhang, W., & Hamori, S. (2021). Crude oil market and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the US, Japan, and Germany. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74, 101702. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101702

Kaynak Göster

APA Kuloğlu, A. (2022). THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON FINANCIAL MARKETS ON SELECTED DEVELOPED COUNTRIES . Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi , 12 (1) , 293-308 . DOI: 10.30783/nevsosbilen.914921