Türkiye’de Partilerin Konumları ve Seçim Dinamiklerinin Analizi

Bu çalışma Türkiye’de başkanlık sistemine geçilmeden önceki son seçimler olan Haziran ve Kasım2015 genel seçimlerini, seçimler öncesindeki siyasi sürece, iki seçim arasındaki dönemde yapılmışolan koalisyon görüşmelerine, olası koalisyon senaryolarına, ve seçimler sonrasındaki gelişmelerebakarak, incelemektedir. Bu analiz iki bölüme ayrılmaktadır. İlk bölüm Turkiye’de seçimlerin arkaplanını incelemekte; koalisyon potansiyeli, partilerin adaptasyonu ve partilerin kalıcılığı gibi kavramlarüzerinden, politika alanlarına göre parti konumlarının yıllar içerisinde ne kadar değişip değişmediğinianaliz etmektedir. İkinci kısım ise Turkiye’deki seçim coğrafyasını ele alarak 2015’teki oy vermeeğilimlerini, stratejik oyları ve seçim sonuçlarındaki uyuşmazlıkları tartışmaktadır.

Analyzing Party Positions and Electoral Dynamics in Turkey

This article examines the June and November 2015 general elections in Turkey – the final electionsbefore Turkey’s transition into a presidential system – focusing on the political environment leading upto the elections, the coalition deals and potential coalition scenarios between the two elections and theaftermath of the November elections. The analysis is two-fold: first section looks into the backgroundof electoral politics in Turkey and how policy dimensions of parties changed or stabilized over the years,covering the concepts of coalition potential, party adaptability and survival. The second section looksinto electoral geography in Turkey, changes in voting patterns, strategic voting and the discrepanciesin numbers in 2015.

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