Erhan ASLANOĞLU, Oral ERDOĞAN, Pınar DENİZ

İHRACAT GELİŞMİŞLİĞİ VE BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: MENA ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR ÇALIŞMA

Bu çalışma, öncelikle 2004-2016 dönemi için, OPEC üyesi olan ve olmayan ülkeler arasında bir karşılaştırma yapmak için Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika (MENA) ülkelerinin ihracat gelişmişliğini hesaplamaktadır. İkinci olarak, ihracat karmaşıklığının kişi başı GSYİH’daki büyüme oranları üzerindeki etkisini incelemek için çok sayıda makroekonomik değişken kontrolü altında, kısa ve uzun vadeli ampirik analizler uygulanmaktadır. Son olarak, büyümede oranlarındaki varyansın ayrıştırılması için Panel VAR analizi yöntem olarak kullanılmaktadır. Ampirik bulgular, petrol fiyatları ve OPEC üyeliği gösteren değişkenlerin kontrolü altında, ihracat gelişmişliğinin büyüme oranları üzerindeki olumlu etkisini göstermektedir ve ihracat gelişmişliğinin çok sayıdaki aday değişken arasından büyüme oranlarını açıklamada anahtar değişken olduğu görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İhracat gelişmişliği, Ekonomik büyüme, MENA ülkeleri

EXPORT SOPHISTICATION AND ITS IMPACT ON GROWTH: CASE STUDY FOR MENA COUNTRIES

This study initially calculates export sophistication of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries to make a comparison in the region and in between OPEC and non-OPEC countries for 2004-2016 period. Secondly, short and long run empirical analysis are applied to examine the effect of export sophistication on GDP per capita growth controlling for several macroeconomic variables. Lastly, panel VAR is utilized to decompose the variation in growth rate. Empirical findings suggest positive effect of sophistication on growth rate controlling for oil prices and OPEC membership and export sophistication is observed to be the key variable to explain the variation in growth rate out of several candidate variables.

Keywords:

Export sophistication, Economic growth, MENA countries,

PDF

___

Abrigo, M. R. and Love, I. (2016). Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata, The Stata Journal, 16(3), 778-804.

Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations, The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297.

Arellano, M. & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51.

Belaid, F., Dagher, L., & Filis, G. (2021). Revisiting the resource curse in the MENA region. Resources Policy, 73, 102225.

Besedes, T. & Prusa, T.J. (2006). Product differentiation and duration of U.S. import trade. Journal of International Economics, 70, 339–358.

Bhattacharyya, S. C., & Blake, A. (2010). Analysis of oil export dependency of MENA countries: Drivers, trends and prospects. Energy Policy, 38(2), 1098-1107.

Brenton, P., Saborowski C., & von Uexkull, E. (2010). What explains the low survival rate of developing country export flows? World Bank Econ. Rev. 24(3), 474–499.

Brinkerhoff, D. W. & Brinkerhoff, J. M. (2011). Public – private partnerships; perspectives on urposes, publicness and good governance, Public Administration and Development. Wiley Online Library, 31, 2-14.

Chang, H.-J. (2002). Kicking away the ladder: development strategy in historical perspective, London: Anthem Press.

Corcoles, D., Diaz-Mora, C., & Gandoy R. (2014). Product sophistication: a tie that binds partners in international trade. Economic Modelling, 44(1), 533-541.

Criscuolo, C., Henry, R.M., Overman, G. & Van Reenen, J. (2019). Some causal effects of an industrial policy. American Economic Review, 109(1), 48–85.

Di Maio, M. & Tamagni, F. (2008). The evolution of world export sophistication and the Italian trade anomaly. Rivista di Politica Economica 98(1–2), 135–74.

ECI, 2019. https://oec.world/en/rankings/country/neci/, (Accessed on 17.11.2019)

Fasano, U. & Iqbal Z. (2003). GCC countries: from oil dependence to diversification. International Monetary Fund. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/doc/IMF073/02714.978.1589062337/02714.978.1589062337/ Other_formats/Source_PDF/02714.978.1463914172.pdf, (Accessed on 17.11.2019)

Fortunato, P. & Razo, C. (2014). Export sophistication, growth and the middle-income trap. In Transforming Economies–Making Industrial Policy Work for Growth, Jobs & Development, ILO, 267-287.

Grancay, M., Grancay, N. & Dudas, T. (2015). What you export matters: does it really? Contemporary Economics, 9(2), 233-244.

Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Chung, S., Jimenez, J. & Yildirim, M. A. (2011). The Atlas of economic complexity, Cambridge MA: Puritan Press.

Hausmann, R., C. A. Hidalgo, S. Bustos, M. Coscia, A. Simoes and M.A. Yildirim (2014). The atlas of economic complexity: mapping paths to prosperity, MIT Press.

Hausmann, R., Hwang, J. & Rodrik, D. (2007). What you export matters. Journal of Economic Growth, 12(1), 1-25.

Hausmann, R. & Hidalgo, C.A. (2011). The Network structure of economic output. Journal of Economic Growth, 16(4), 309-342.

Hidalgo, C. A. & Hausmann, R. (2009). The Building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570-10575.

Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W., & Rosen, H. S. (1988). Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1371-1395.

IMF Bahrain Staff Paper (2016, April). Economic diversification in oil-exporting Arab countries. In Annual Meeting of Arab Ministers of Finance. https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2016/042916.pdf, (Accessed on 17.11.2019)

Jarreau, J. & Poncet, S. (2012). Export sophistication and economic growth: evidence from China, Journal of Development Economics, 97(2), 281-292.

Juhász, R. (2018). Temporary protection and technology adoption: evidence from the Napoleonic blockade. American Economic Review, 108(11), 3339–76.

Lectard, P. & Rougier, E. (2018). Can developing countries gain from defying comparative advantage? distance to comparative advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization. World Development, 102: 90-110.

Lederman, D. & Maloney, W. (2012). Does what you export matter? In Search of Empirical Guidance for Industrial Policies. The World Bank.

Lin, F., Weldemicael, E. O., & Wang, X. (2017). Export sophistication increases income in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from 1981–2000. Empirical Economics, 52(4), 1627-1649.

Macrotrends (2019). https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart, (Accessed on 10.11.2019)

Matallah, S. (2020). Economic diversification in MENA oil exporters: Understanding the role of governance. Resources Policy, 66, 101602.

Mazzucato, M. (2013). The Entrepreneurial state: debunking public vs. private sector myths, New York: Public Affairs.

Mcmillan, M. & Rodrik, D. (2011). Globalization, structural change and productivity growth. NBER Working Paper 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Movchan, A., Zotin, A., and Grigoryev, V. (2017). Managing the resource curse strategies of oil-dependent economies in the modern era. Moscow, Russia: Carnegie Moscow Center.

Naqvi, N., Henow, A. & Chang, H.-J. (2018). Kicking away the financial ladder: German development banking under economic globalization. Review of International Political Economy, Online.

Observatory of Economic Complexity. 2019. https://oec.world/en/resources/data, (Accessed on 15.11.2019)

OPEC. 2019. https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/40.htm, (Accessed on 14.11.2019)

Rodrik, D. (2006). What’s so special about China’s exports?, China & World Economy, 14(5): 1–19.

UN. 2019. https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/2014wesp_country_ classification.pdf, (Accessed on 17.11.2019)

UN Human Development Index. 2019. http://hdr.undp.org/en/data, (Accessed on 17.11.2019)