INVESTIGATING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GASES AND DISCHARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE BASIN OF ARAS RIVER
In this study, the relationship between changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and discharge fluctuations was investigated in the basin of Aras river. To this end, we used two sets of data including greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen oxide) and discharge data in the Aras river basin during a period of 41 years (1968-2009). Furthermore, Pearson correlation, linear and polynomial regression, standard Z scores and Mann-Kendall test were employed. The results of investigating the discharge changes in the basin indicate its monthly and annual decreasing trend. Also, the results of Pearson correlation revealed that the decreasing trend of discharge in the basin has a close relationship with the trend of changes in carbon dioxide and methane. At a confidence level of 99%, except in summer months, almost for all months, there was a negative correlation with discharge of the basin that refers to the decline of discharge in the basin along with the increase of these gases in the environment. The greatest effect of greenhouse gases was observed in the months of December, January, February, March, and April. Mann-Kendall indicated the significance of the change trend in the discharge of the basin. On a monthly or annual basis in all months of the year, this change trend is quite significant.
INVESTIGATING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GASES AND DISCHARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE BASIN OF ARAS RIVER
In this study, the relationship between changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and discharge fluctuations was investigated in the basin of Aras river. To this end, we used two sets of data including greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen oxide) and discharge data in the Aras river basin during a period of 41 years (1968-2009). Furthermore, Pearson correlation, linear and polynomial regression, standard Z scores and Mann-Kendall test were employed. The results of investigating the discharge changes in the basin indicate its monthly and annual decreasing trend. Also, the results of Pearson correlation revealed that the decreasing trend of discharge in the basin has a close relationship with the trend of changes in carbon dioxide and methane. At a confidence level of 99%, except in summer months, almost for all months, there was a negative correlation with discharge of the basin that refers to the decline of discharge in the basin along with the increase of these gases in the environment. The greatest effect of greenhouse gases was observed in the months of December, January, February, March, and April. Mann-Kendall indicated the significance of the change trend in the discharge of the basin. On a monthly or annual basis in all months of the year, this change trend is quite significant.
___
- Ahn, K. H. & Merwade, V. (2014). Quantifying the relative impact of climate and human activities on
streamflow. Journal of Hydrology, 515, 257-266.
- Burgos, M., Sierra, A., Ortega, T. & Forja, J. M. (2015). Anthropogenic effects on greenhouse gas (CH4 and
N2O) emissions in the Guadalete River Estuary (SW Spain). Science of the Total Environment, 503, 179-189.
- Change, I. C. (2007). The Physical Science Basis. IPCC report.
- Davis, J. C. & Sampson, R. J. (1986). Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology. (Vol. 646). New York: Wiley.
- Esfandiari Darabad, F., Alijahan, M., Rahimi, M. & Mehrvarz, A. (2013). Statistical detection of the effect of
global warming on discharge of Aras River. Quantitative Geomorphology Research, 1(4), 43-60.
- Feyzi, V. (2009). Analysis of spatial-temporal distribution of climate change in Iran. (Master's degree in
climatology, Tarbiat Modares University, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Department of Physical
Geography, Tehran, Iran).
- Fujihara, Y., Tanaka, K., Watanabe, T., Nagano, T. & Kojiri, T. (2008). Assessing the impacts of climate
change on the water resources of the Seyhan River basin in Turkey: Use of dynamically downscaled data for
hydrologic simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 353(1-2), 33-48.
- Griggs, D. J. & Noguer, M. (2002). Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of working group I
to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Weather, 57(8), 267-269.
- Hafeznia, M. R. (2010). Introduction to the Research Method in the Humanities. (7th ed.). Tehran: SAMT
Publication. (In Persian).
- Khoshakhlagh, F., Afsharmanesh, H., Shafiei, Z. & Aghaalkhani, M. (2010). Evaluation of the Effect of Climate
Change on Surface Water Hydrology, Case Study: Karun River, 14th Iranian Geophysical Conference,
Geopolitics Association of Iran, Tehran, Iran.
- Khosravi, M., Esmaeil Nejad, M. & Nazaripour, H. (2010). Climate Change and Its Influence on Middle East
Water Resources, Proceedings of the Fourth International Congress of the Geographers of the Islamic World,
pp. 1-8.
- Lanzante, J. R. (1996). Resistant, robust and non‐parametric techniques for the analysis of climate data:
Theory and examples, including applications to historical radiosonde station data. International Journal of
Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 16(11), 1197-1226.
- Li, L. J., Zhang, L., Wang, H., Wang, J., Yang, J. W., Jiang, D. J., ... & Qin, D. Y. (2007). Assessing the impact
of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China. Hydrological
Processes: An International Journal, 21(25), 3485-3491.
- Li, X. X., Qin, D. H. & Li, J. Y. (2007). National Assessment Report of Climate Change. Beijing: Science
Press.
- Liang, L., Li, L. & Liu, Q. (2010). Temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration during 1961–2005 in the
Taoer River basin of Northeast China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 150(2), 298-306.
- Manabe, S., Milly, P. C. D. & Wetherald, R. (2004). Simulated long-term changes in river discharge and soil
moisture due to global warming/Simulations à long terme de changements d’écoulement fluvial et d’humidité
du sol causés par le réchauffement global. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49(4).
- Marín Muñiz, J. L., Hernández, M. E. & Moreno Casasola, P. (2015). Greenhouse gas emissions from coastal
freshwater wetlands in Veracruz Mexico: Effect of plant community and seasonal dynamics. Atmospheric
Environment, 107, 107-117.
- Martin Gorriz, B., Soto García, M. & Martínez Alvarez, V. (2014). Energy and greenhouse-gas emissions in
irrigated agriculture of SE (southeast) Spain. Effects of alternative water supply scenarios. Energy, 77, 478-
488.
- Mizyed, N. (2009). Impacts of climate change on water resources availability and agricultural water demand
in the West Bank. Water Resources Management, 23(10), 2015-2029.
- Mohammad Khorshiddost, A. & Ghavidel Rahimi, Y. (2006). Simulation of double effects of atmospheric
carbon dioxide on Tabriz climate change using the GFDL model. Journal of Environmental Study, 39, 1-10.
(In Persian).
- Plampin, M., Illangasekare, T., Sakaki, T. & Pawar, R. (2014). Experimental study of gas evolution in
heterogeneous shallow subsurface formations during leakage of stored CO2. International Journal of
Greenhouse Gas Control, 22, 47-62.
- Pohlert, T. (2016). Non-parametric trend tests and change-point detection. CC BY-ND, 4.
- Rossi, R. E., Mulla, D. J., Journel, A. G. & Franz, E. H. (1992). Geostatistical tools for modeling and
interpreting ecological spatial dependence. Ecological Monographs, 62(2), 277-314.
- Sakaki, T., Plampin, M. R., Pawar, R., Komatsu, M. & Illangasekare, T. H. (2013). What controls carbon
dioxide gas phase evolution in the subsurface? Experimental observations in a 4.5 m-long column under
different heterogeneity conditions. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 17, 66-77.
- Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American
statistical association, 63(324), 1379-1389.
- Sharifian, H. & Habibi, A. (2013). The Effect of Climate Change on Surface Water Changes in a part of
Golestan Province Basin. First National Conference on Water and Agriculture Water Challenges. Iran
Irrigation and Drainage Association, Islamic Azad University, Khorasgan Branch, Isfahan, Iran. (In Persian).
- Shen, D. J. & Liu, C. M. (1998). Response of hydrology and water resources system for climate change.
Geography Research, 17, 435-443.
- Sheng, Q., Zhao, B., Huang, M., Wang, L., Quan, Z., Fang, C. & Wu, J. (2014). Greenhouse gas emissions
following an invasive plant eradication program. Ecological Engineering, 73, 229-237.
- Sun, M., Yuan, Y., Zhang, J., Wang, R. & Wang, Y. (2014). Greenhouse gas emissions estimation and ways
to mitigate emissions in the Yellow River Delta High-efficient Eco-economic Zone, China. Journal of Cleaner
Production, 81, 89-102.
- Tian, F., Yang, Y. & Han, S. (2009). Using runoff slope-break to determine dominate factors of runoff decline
in Hutuo River basin, North China. Water Science and Technology, 60(8), 2135-2144.
- Toulabi Nejad, M. & Naserzadeh, M. H. (2015). The role of greenhouse gases on fluctuations of discharge of
Kashkan-Roud. Hydro-Geomorphology, 2, 135-117. (In Persian).
- Wang, X., He, K. & Dong, Z. (2019). Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Beichuan
River basin in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, China. Catena, 176, 81-93.
- WMO Global Ozone Research, & Monitoring Project. (1986). Atmospheric Ozone, 1985: Assessment of Our
Understanding of the Processes Controlling Its Present Distribution and Change (Vol. 1). National
Aeronautics and Space Administration.
- Yadav, R., Tripathi, S. K., Pranuthi, G. & Dubey, S. K. (2014). Trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test for
precipitation and temperature for thirteen districts of Uttarakhand. Journal of Agrometeorology, 16(2), 164.
- Ye, X., Zhang, Q., Liu, J., Li, X. & Xu, C. Y. (2013). Distinguishing the relative impacts of climate change and
human activities on variation of streamflow in the Poyang Lake catchment, China. Journal of Hydrology, 494,
83-95.
- Zeng, X., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Zhou, J. & Su, B. (2012). Discharge projection in the Yangtze River basin under
different emission scenarios based on the artificial neural networks. Quaternary International, 282, 113-121.
- Zhang, X., Li, P. & Li, D. (2018). Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation in the southern part of the Heihe
River basin (China), 1984-2014. Water, 10(4), 410.