İklim Değişikliği ve Çatışma

Dünya tarihine bakıldığında pek çok ülke farklı sebeplerden dolayı savaşlar, çatışmalar, isyanlar ve toplumsal gerilimler yaşamış ve yaşamaya da devam etmektedir. Türkiye Cumhuriyeti'nin 100. yılına ulaşana kadar pek çok badirelerden geçtiği biliniyor. Cumhuriyetin ilanından günümüze kadar terör ve iç çatışma tehdidi hem bugün hem de gelecek yüzyıllarda Türkiye'nin istikrarı açısından sürekli gündemde olmaktadır. Türkiye, cumhuriyet tarihi boyunca hem devlet hem de insan güvenliği açısından pek çok riskle karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Önümüzdeki yüzyıllarda Türkiye'nin insani güvenliğini tehdit etme potansiyeline sahip bir diğer olgu ise iklim değişikliğidir. İklim değişikliği artık sadece çevresel değil, aynı zamanda önemli sosyal ve siyasal sorunlara da neden olma potansiyeline sahip bir olgu haline dönüşmüştür. Bu nedenle, iklim değişikliği basit bir çevre bozulması olarak değil hem ulusal hem de uluslararası düzeyde farklı çatışma türlerini tetikleyebilecek bir “güvenlik” sorunu, yani “insani” bir sorun olarak değerlendirmek gerekiyor. Nitekim iklim değişikliği ve çatışma arasındaki ilişki, son yıllarda hem akademik literatürde hem de politik alanda ilgi görmeye başlamıştır. Bu çalışmada, konu ile ilgili birçok nicel ve nitel çalışmalar incelenmiş ve iklim değişikliği, insan güvenliği ve çatışma kavramları arasındaki bağlantılar ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, iklim değişikliğinin birçok farklı türden çatışmaya yol açabilecek bir insani güvenlik sorunu olarak görülmesini sağlamaktır. İklim değişikliğinin insan güvenliğine yönelik gelecekteki tehditlerin anlaşılması ve bunlarla mücadele etme yeteneğini geliştirmek gerektiğinin önemine vurgu yapmaktır. İklim değişikliği her ne kadar, çatışmalar veya şiddet için gerekli bir önkoşul olmasa da hem bireylerin hem de devletlerin, insan yaşamı için hayati önem taşıyan kaynaklara doğrudan veya dolaylı erişimini ortadan kaldırmakta veya sınırlandırmaktadır. Bu durum, bazı ülkelerde farklı türlerden çatışma, şiddet ve iç savaş riskini arttırdığı görülmektedir. Çalışmada da vurgulandığı gibi iklim değişikliğinin etkileri, özellikle düşük gelirli ülkelerde farklı türden çatışma ve iç savaşlara, gelişmiş ülkelerde ise terör eylemleri gibi güvenlik sorunlarına neden olma potansiyeline sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Bu nedenle iklim değişikliğinin uzun vadede bireysel, sosyal ve politik sonuçlarını anlamak için gerek bireylerin gerekse kamu kurumlarının veya sivil toplum kuruluşlarının ciddi bir çaba göstermesi gerekliliği ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmada iklim değişikliği ile çatışma arasındaki ilişki genel olarak ortaya konduktan sonra, ikinci yüzyılda Türkiye'yi bekleyen tehditler ve çözüm önerileri kısmında, çatışma bağlamında Türkiye'yi bekleyen olası riskler ve çözümler ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Çevre, İklim değişikliği, Çatışma, İklim Değişikliği ve Göç, İnsani Güvenlik

Climate Change and Conflict

Looking at world history, many countries have experienced and continue to experience wars, conflicts, rebellions and social tensions for different reasons. It is known that the Republic of Turkey went through many difficulties until it 100th anniversary. From the proclamation of the Republic to the present day, the threat of terrorism and çivil conflict has always been on the agenda for Turkey’s stability both today and in the coming centuries. Throughout the history of the republic. Turkey has faced many risks in terms of both state and human security. Another phenomenon that has the potential to threaten Turkey’s human security in the coming centuries is climate change. Climate change has now become a phenomenon that has the potential to cause not only environmental but also important social and political problems. For this reason, climate change should not be considered as a simple environmental degradation, but as a “security issue, that is, a “human” problem that can trigger different types of conflicts at both national and international levels. As a matter of fact, the relationship between climate change and conflict has been discussed both in academic literature and in recent years. In this study, many quantitative and qualitative studies on the subject were examined and the connections between the concepts of climate change, human security and conflict were tried to be revealed. The aim of this study is to ensure that climate change is seen as a human security issue that can lead to many kinds of conflicts. It is to emphasize the importance of understanding the future threats to human security of climate change and improving the ability to combat them. Although climate change is not a necessary precondition for conflict or violence, it eliminates or limits the direct or indirect access of both individual and states to resources vital to human life. This appears to increase the risk of conflict of different kinds, violence and civil war in some countries. As emphasized in the study, the effects of climate change seem to have the potential to cause different kinds of conflicts and civil wars, especially in low-income countries, and security problems such as terrorist acts in developed countries. Therefore, to understand the individual, social and political consequences of climate change in the long term, it is necessary for individuals, public institutions or non-governmental organizations to make a serious effort. In this study , after revealing the relationship between climate change and conflict in general, the possible risks and solutions awaiting Turkey in the context of conflict are tried to be put forward in the section on threats awaiting Turkey in the second century and solution proposals.

Keywords:

Environment, Climate Change, Conflict, Climate Change and Migration, Human Security,

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