Kömür Kaynaklı $CO_{2}$ Emisyonlarının Tahminine Yönelik Model Geliştirilmesi: BRICS-T Ülkeleri Örneği

Bu çalışmada BRICS-T ülkelerinin kömür kaynaklı karbondioksit $(CO_{2})$emisyonlarının tahminine yönelik istatistiksel modeller geliştirilmiştir. Gruptaki ülkelerin ekonomik ve demografik verileri kullanılarak çoklu regresyon yöntemi ile kömür kaynaklı $CO_{2}$ emisyonları modellenmiştir. 1971–2016 dönemine ait verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmada, seçilen dönemlere ait veriler iki gruba ayrılmıştır. 1971–2010 yıları arasındaki ilk grup istatistiksel modellerin geliştirilmesinde kullanılırken, 2011–2016 yılları arasındaki ikinci grup ise geliştirilen modellerin performans ölçümlerinin yapılmasında kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca geliştirilen modellerin istatistiksel geçerliliği, çeşitli yaklaşımlar ile test edilmiştir. Ek olarak, kömür kaynaklı $CO_{2}$ emisyonlarının istatistiksel olarak etkileyen en önemli değişkenler de tespit edilmiştir. Modelleme çalışmalarının yanı sıra, BRICS-T ülkelerinin enerji ve $CO_{2}$ emisyonlarına yönelik bir değerlendirme de sunulmuştur.

Development of Models for the Estimation of Coal-related $CO_{2}$ Emissions: The Case of BRICS-T Countries

Statistical models were developed for the estimation of coal-related carbon dioxide $(CO_{2})$emissions from the BRICS-T countries in this study. Coal-related $CO_{2}$emissions were modeled by multiple regression method using the economic and demographic data of the countries in the group. In the study in which the annual data over the period of 1971-2016 was used, the selected data was divided into two groups. While the first group from 1971 to 2010 was used for developing the models, the second group from 2011 to 2016 was used for performance measurement of the developed models. Additionally, the proposed models were statistically verified by various approaches. Furthermore, the significant variables statistically affecting the coal-related $CO_{2}$emissions were determined. Besides modelling studies, an assessment of energy and $CO_{2}$emissions from the BRICS-T countries was also presented.

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