MEHMET SALTUK ARIKAN, MUSTAFA BAHADIR ÇEVRİMLİ, AHMET CUMHUR AKIN, Mustafa Agah TEKİNDAL

Determining the Change in Retail Prices of Veal in Turkey by GARCH Method Between 2014-2017

In Turkey, the demand for veal in the red meat market is steadily increasing. In the formation of this demand and price; additional factors such as consumer preferences, government interventions in the red meat market, import decisions, also the implemented policies and subsidies are effective besides the main factors. However, the fact that such practices do not affect the veal prices in the market makes it impossible to ensure price stability and a sustainable market. The analysis of the change in retail prices is important for both producers and consumers so that the validity of this view can be tested. The aim of this study was to analyze the retail prices of minced meat and the veal cubes from the first week of January 2014 to the last week of December 2017 via using the volatility estimation modeling method in the context of the effectiveness of the policies and market interventions applied in the red meat sector implemented in Turkey. Non-stationary series were made stationary by differencing. By developing a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH 1,1) model using the series subject to a unit root test, it was found to be the optimal model that best explains the fluctuation of the prices. The results of the estimation show that the retail prices of veal cubes and minced meats fluctuated conspicuously in the said period and that the implemented policies and the market interventions were not adequate to eliminate the instability and uncertainty of the prices.

Türkiye’de Perakende Dana Eti Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Garch Yöntemiyle Belirlenmesi, 2014-2017

Türkiye’de kırmızı et tüketiminde büyükbaş hayvan etine olan talep her geçen gün artmaktadır. Bu talebin ve fiyatın oluşmasında tüketici tercihleri, kırmızı et piyasasına yapılan devlet müdahaleleri, alınan ithalat kararları, uygulanan politikalar ve desteklemeler de etkili olmaktadır. Ancak bu uygulamaların etkisinin reel piyasada dana eti fiyatlarına olumlu yansımaması sebebiyle, fiyat istikrarının sağlanması ve sürdürülebilir yapıya kavuşması imkânsızlaşmaktadır. Bu çalışmada; Ocak 2014 ilk hafta ile Aralık 2017 son haftası arasındaki döneme ait verilere göre Türkiye’de kırmızı et sektöründe uygulanan politikalar ve devlet müdahaleleri kapsamında perakende dana kıyma ve kuşbaşı ortalama fiyatları volatilite tahmin modelleme yöntemi ile analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Durağan olmayan serilerin farkları alınarak durağan hale getirilmiştir. Birim kök testi uygulanan serilere daha sonra Genelleştirilmiş Otoregresif Koşullu Değişen Varyans (GARCH 1,1) modeli kurularak, fiyatlardaki dalgalanmayı açıklayan en uygun model olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçları incelenen dönemde perakende dana kuşbaşı ve kıyma fiyatlarında belirgin dalgalanmaların yaşandığını göstermekle birlikte bu dönemde uygulanan politikaların ve piyasaya yapılan müdahalelerin fiyatlardaki istikrarsızlık ve belirsizliği gidermede yeterli olmadığını açıklamaktadır.

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