Traffic Analysis Model with Bayesian Network and Social Media Data: D100 Highway Travel İnformation System

The traffic problem in Intelligent Transportation Systems has recently become a very important issue. Thanks to Intelligent Transportation Systems, the formation of large amounts of traffic data has led to the formation of data-oriented models. There is a growing interest in predicting traffic measures by modeling complex scenarios based on big data with data mining and machine learning methods. In this study, traffic events from Twitter traffic notifications and vehicle density from sensor data were obtained. Traffic density analysis and traffic incident analysis were performed with the machine learning method. In the analysis of traffic incidents, 36627 traffic incidents were digitized. This data was separated into categories including type of accident; day; month; year; season; left, right or middle lane; and vehicle failure, maintenance-repair work and accident notification. Between 2016 and 2020, 1400 daily vehicle data logs were obtained from the sensor data located at 59 points of the D100 highway. Traffic density and parameters affecting traffic incidents on the Anatolian and European sides of the D100 highway in Istanbul were determined. Traffic density and accident event models were designed with the Bayesian network approach. In the sensitivity analysis of the model, it was concluded that the parameter that has the strongest effect on traffic events and density formation on the D100 highway line is the strips. With these models, the infrastructure of the early warning system has been created for region-specific traffic density situations and possible traffic events.

Keywords:

Traffic management, traffic analysis, machine learning, bayesian networks big data, twitter PDF Görünüm Referanslar Atıflar PDF Görünüm,

PDF

___

Afrin, T., & Yodo, N. (2021). A probabilistic estimation of traffic congestion using Bayesian network. Measurement, 174, 109051. google scholar
Agarwal, S., Kachroo, P., & Regentova, E. (2016). A hybrid model using logistic regression and wavelet transformation to detect traffic incidents. IATSS Research, 40(1), 56-63. https://doi.Org/10.1016/j.iatssr.2016.06.001. google scholar
Ali, F., Ali, A., Imran, M., Naqvi, R. A., Siddiqi, M. H., & Kwak, K. S. (2021). Traffic accident detection and condition analysis based on social networking data. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 151, 105973. google scholar
Alkouz, B., & Al Aghbari, Z. (2020). SNSJam: Road traffic analysis and prediction by fusing data from multiple social networks. Information Processing & Management, 57(1), 102139. google scholar
Alkouz, B., & Al Aghbari, Z. (2022, March). Fusion of Multiple Arabic Social Media Streams for Traffic Events Detection. In 2022 7th International Conference on Big Data Analytics (ICBDA) (pp. 231-235). IEEE. google scholar
Bao, J., Liu, P., Yu, H., & Xu, C. (2017). Incorporating twitter-based human activity information in spatial analysis of crashes in urban areas. Accident analysis & prevention, 106, 358-369. google scholar
Blackwell, D., & Ajoodha, R. (2022). A Bayesian Approach to Understanding the Influence of Traffic Congestion Given the Road Structure. In Proceedings of Sixth International Congress on Information and Communication Technology (pp. 271-279). Springer, Singapore. google scholar
Chen, H., Zhao, Y., Ma, X. (2020). Critical factors analysis of severe traffic accidents based on Bayesian network in China. Journal of advanced transportation, 2020. google scholar
Contreras, E., Torres-Trevino, L., & Torres, F. (2018). Prediction of car accidents using amaximum sensitivity neural network. Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social-Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, LNICST, 213, 86-95. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73323-4_9. google scholar
Dabiri, S., & Heaslip, K. (2019). Developing a Twitter-based traffic event detection model using deep learning architectures. Expert systems with applications, 118, 425-439. google scholar
Daly, E. M., Lecue, F., & Bicer, V. (2013, March). Westland row why so slow? Fusing social media and linked data sources for understanding real-time traffic conditions. In Proceedings of the 2013 international conference on Intelligent user interfaces (pp. 203-212). google scholar
De Ona, J., Lopez, G., Mujalli, R., & Calvo, F. J. (2013). Analysis of traffic accidents on rural highways using Latent Class Clustering and Bayesian Networks. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 51, 1-10. google scholar
De Ona, J., Mujalli, R. O., & Calvo, F. J. (2011). Analysis of traffic accident injury severity on Spanish rural highways using Bayesian networks. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 43(1), 402-411. google scholar
Diao, Z., Wang, X., Zhang, D., Liu, Y., Xie, K., & He, S. (2019). Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks for Traffic Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v33i01.330189. google scholar
Dogru, N., & Subasi, A. (2018). Traffic accident detection using random forest classifier. 2018 15th Learning and Technology Conference, L and T 2018, 40-45. https://doi.org/10.1109/LT.2018.8368509. google scholar
Febres, J. D., Mohamadi, F., Mariscal, M., Herrera, S., & Garaa-Herrero, S. (2019). The role of journey purpose in road traffic injuries: a Bayesian network approach. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2019. google scholar
Fu, H., & Zhou, Y. (2011). The traffic accident prediction based on neural network. Proceedings of the 2011 2nd International Conference on Digital Manufacturing and Automation, ICDMA 2011, 1349-1350. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICDMA.2011.331. google scholar
Geetha Ramani, R., & Shanthi, S. (2012). Classifier prediction evaluation in modeling road traffic accident data. 2012 IEEE International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Computing Research, ICCIC 2012. google scholar
Gu, X., Li, T., Wang, Y., Zhang, L., Wang, Y., & Yao, J. (2018). Traffic fatalities prediction using support vector machine with hybrid particle swarm optimization. Journal of Algorithms and Computational Technology, 12(1), 20-29. https://doi.org/10.1177/1748301817729953. google scholar
Gu, Y., Qian, Z. S., & Chen, F. (2016). From Twitter to detector: Real-time traffic incident detection using social media data. Transportation research part C: emerging technologies, 67, 321-342. google scholar
Gu, Y., Qian, Z. S., & Chen, F. (2016). From Twitter to detector: Real-time traffic incident detection using social media data. Transportation research part C: emerging technologies, 67, 321-342. google scholar
Guo, S., Lin, Y., Feng, N., Song, C., & Wan, H.(2019).Attention Based Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks for Traf-fic Flow Forecasting. AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence Twenty-Eighth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v33i01.3301922 google scholar
He, Z. (2019). STCNN: A Spatio-Temporal Convolutional Neural Network for Long-Term Traffic Prediction. https://doi.org/10.1109/mdm.2019.00-53. google scholar
Kim, J., & Wang, G. (2016). Diagnosis and prediction of traffic congestion on urban road networks using Bayesian networks. Transportation Research Record, 2595(1), 108-118. google scholar
Lalika, L., Kitali, A. E., Haule, H. J., Kidando, E., Sando, T., & Alluri, P. (2022). What are the leading causes of fatal and severe injury crashes involving older pedestrian? Evidence from Bayesian network model. Journal of safety research, 80, 281-292. google scholar
Li, C., Wu, X., Zhang, Z., Ma, Z., Zhu, Y., & Chen, Y. (2022, January). Freeway traffic accident severity prediction based on multi-dimensional and multi-layer Bayesian network. In 2022 IEEE 2nd International Conference on Power, Electronics and Computer Applications (ICPECA) (pp. 1032-1035). IEEE. google scholar
Liu, L., Ye, X., Wang, T., Yan, X., Chen, J., & Ran, B. (2022). Key factors analysis of severity of automobile to two-wheeler traffic accidents based on Bayesian network. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(10), 6013. google scholar
Mai, E., & Hranac, R. (2013). Twitter interactions as a data source for transportation incidents (No. 13-1636). google scholar
Mbakwe, A. C., Saka, A. A., Choi, K., & Lee, Y. J. (2016). Alternative method of highway traffic safety analysis for developing countries using delphi technique and Bayesian network. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 93, 135-146. google scholar
Mohamed, E. A. (2014). Predicting Causes of Traffic Road Accidents Using Multi-class Support Vector Machines. Journal of Communication and Computer, 11, 403-411. https://doi.org/10.17265/1548-7709/2014.05. google scholar
Mujalli, R. O., & De Ona, J. (2011). A method for simplifying the analysis of traffic accidents injury severity on two-lane highways using Bayesian networks. Journal of safety research, 42(5), 317-326. google scholar
Nguyen, H., Liu, W., Rivera, P., & Chen, F. (2016, April). Trafficwatch: Real-time traffic incident detection and monitoring using social media. In Pacific-asia conference on knowledge discovery and data mining (pp. 540-551). Springer, Cham. google scholar
Ozbayoglu, M., Kucukayan, G., & Dogdu, E. (2016). A real-time autonomous highway accident detection model based on big data pro-cessing and computational intelligence. Proceedings - 2016 IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2016, 1807-1813. https://doi.org/10.1109/BigData.2016.7840798. google scholar
Pascale, A., & Nicoli, M. (2011, June). Adaptive Bayesian network for traffic flow prediction. In 2011 IEEE Statistical Signal Processing Workshop (SSP) (pp. 177-180). IEEE. google scholar
Paule, J. D. G., Sun, Y., & Moshfeghi, Y. (2019). On fine-grained geolocalisation of tweets and real-time traffic incident detection. Information Processing & Management, 56(3), 1119-1132. google scholar
Paule, J. D. G., Sun, Y., & Moshfeghi, Y. (2019). On fine-grained geolocalisation of tweets and real-time traffic incident detection. Information Processing & Management, 56(3), 1119-1132. google scholar
Razzaq, S., Riaz, F., Mehmood, T., & Ratyal, N. I. (2016). Multi-Factors Based Road Accident Prevention System. 2016 International Conference on Computing, Electronic and Electrical Engineering, ICE Cube 2016 - Proceedings, 190-195. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICECUBE.2016.7495221. google scholar
Ren, H., Song, Y., Wang, J., Hu, Y., & Lei, J. (2018). A Deep Learning Approach to the Citywide Traffic Accident Risk Prediction. IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC, 2018-November, 3346-3351. https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2018.8569437. google scholar
S. S. Ribeiro Jr., C. A. Davis Jr., D. R. R. Oliveira, W. Meira Jr., T. S. Gonçalves, and G. L. Pappa, “Traffic Observatory: A System to Detect and Locate Traffic Events and Conditions Using Twitter,” in Proceedings of the 5th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Location-Based Social Networks, New York, NY, USA, 2012, pp. 5-11. google scholar
Salas, A., Georgakis, P., & Petalas, Y. (2017, October). Incident detection using data from social media. In 2017 IEEE 20th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC) (pp. 751-755). IEEE. google scholar
Salazar, J.C.; Torres-Ruiz, M.; Davis, C.A., Jr.; Moreno-Ibarra, M. Geocoding of traffic-related events from Twitter. In Proceedings of the XVI Brazilian Symposium of Geoinformatics GEOINFO, Campos do Jordao, SP, Brazil, 29 November-2 December 2015; GEOINFO Series; pp. 14-25. google scholar
Shi, Q., & Abdel-Aty, M. (2015 ).Big Data applications in real-time traffic operation and safety monitoring and improvement on urban expressways. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 58, 380-394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2015.02.022 google scholar
Suat-Rojas, N., Gutierrez-Osorio, C., & Pedraza, C. (2022). Extraction and Analysis of Social Networks Data to Detect Traffic Accidents. Information, 13(1), 26. google scholar
Sumalee, Agachai, and Hung Wai Ho. 2018. “Smarter and more connected: Future intelligent transportation system.” IATSS Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iatssr.2018.05.005. google scholar
Sun, M., Zhou, R., Jiao, C., & Sun, X. (2022). Severity analysis of hazardous material road transportation crashes with a Bayesian network using Highway Safety Information System data. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(7), 4002. google scholar
Sun, S., Zhang, C., & Yu, G. (2006). A Bayesian network approach to traffic flow forecasting. IEEE Transactions on intelligent transportation systems, 7(1), 124-132. google scholar
Taamneh, M., Alkheder, S., & Taamneh, S. (2017). Data-mining techniques for traffic accident modeling and prediction in the United Arab Emirates. Journal of Transportation Safety and Security, 9(2), 146-166. https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2016.1152338. google scholar
Vasavi, S. (2016). A Survey on Extracting Hidden Patterns within Road Accident Data using Machine Learning Techniques. Communications on Applied Electronics, 6(4), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.5120/cae2016652455. google scholar
Wu S, Hofman JM, Mason WA, Watts DJ (2011) Who says what to whom on Twitter. In: Proceedings of the 20th international world wide web conference, pp 705-714. google scholar
Yang, Y., Wang, K., Yuan, Z., & Liu, D. (2022). Predicting freeway traffic crash severity using XGBoost-Bayesian network model with consideration of features interaction. Journal of advanced transportation, 2022. google scholar
Yao, W., & Qian, S. (2021). From Twitter to traffic predictor: Next-day morning traffic prediction using social media data. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 124, 102938. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2020.102938. google scholar
Zhang, Z., He, Q., Gao, J., & Ni, M. (2018). A deep learning approach for detecting traffic accidents from social media data. Transportation research part C: emerging technologies, 86, 580-596. google scholar
Zhu, L., Guo, F., Krishnan, R., & Polak, J. W. (2018). A Deep Learning Approach for Traffic Incident Detection in Urban Networks. https://doi.org/10.1109/itsc.2018.8569402. google scholar
Zong, F., Chen, X., Tang, J., Yu, P., & Wu, T. (2019). Analyzing traffic crash severity with combination of information entropy and Bayesian network. IEEE Access, 7, 63288-63302. google scholar
Zong, F., Xu, H., & Zhang, H. (2013). Prediction for traffic accident severity: comparing the Bayesian network and regression models. MathematiA2:A48cal Problems in Engineering, 2013. google scholar