Assessment of the municipal bus fleet electrification in Istanbul

The purpose of the study is to provide a holistic view of possible bus fleet replacement with an electrical one for the biggest city in Turkey - Istanbul. More specifically, the research looks at the compatibility of bus charging vs. schedule, and power requirements assess the impact of different battery capacity and provides financial analysis and estimation of the CO2 impact.The research focuses on the municipal bus fleet and takes as a base Kadıköy district of Istanbul. The data then is extrapolated proportionally to have an estimation for Istanbul.The result shows that available technology can be compatible with the busy schedule of the bus fleet. To reduce requirements for day charging batteries with different capacities ha been evaluated. From a financial perspective, analysis shows that while the electric bus fleet requires a high initial investment, the return on investment is between 6-8 years. The research also shows that while short-distance and not frequent trips should have an easier implementation from the technological perspective, it is the routes with a high daily distance that have the most financial potential.CO2 impact is taken from a tank-to-wheel perspective. It shows that even with today’s Turkey energy mix bus electrification would have a positive effect on CO2 reduction thus supporting Net Zero targets.

Keywords:

decarbonization, Clean energy vehicles Life-cycle cost,

PDF

___

Autosan aims to build an electric bus with removable battery to cut stopover time (April 2020). Sustainable Bus. Retrieved from: https://www.sustainable-bus.com/news/autosan-aims-to-build-an-electric-bus- with-removable-battery/
Battery Pack Prices Cited Below $100/kWh for the First Time in 2020, Wh ile Market Average Sits at $137/ kWh. (December 2020) BloombergNEF. Available from: https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack- prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/ (last accessed August 15, 2021)
Blynn, K. & Attanucci, J. (2019). ‘Accelerating Bus Electrification: A Mixed Methods Analysis of Barriers and Drivers to Scaling Transit Fleet Electrification’. Transportation Research Record, 2673(8), pp. 577–587. doi: 10.1177/0361198119842117.
Cai H. et al. (2014). Siting public electric vehicle charging stations in Beijing using big-data informed travel patterns of the taxi fleet. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 33, Pages 39-46, ISSN 1361-9209
Choi, S.B. (2018). Load variation analysis by bus of distribution systems based on PEVs charging modeling.
Electrical Engineering, 100, 687–694. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00202-017-0593-4
Electric buses and Tco, a matter of (short) time. Bnef report, 2nd part (2018). Sustainable Bus. Retrieved from: https://www.sustainable-bus.com/news/electric-buses-and-tco-a-matter-of-not-much-time-bnef- report-2nd-part/
Electric buses: where are we? (March 4th, 2021). Retrieved from: https://www.ies-synergy.com/en/electric- buses-where-are-we/
ELECTRICITY MARKET 2020 SECTOR REPORT, EPDK (Republic of Turkey, Energy Market Regulatory Authority), 2021. Retrieved from: https://www.epdk.gov.tr/Detay/Icerik/1-1271/electricityreports
Electricity prices, EPİAŞ. Retrieved from: https://seffaflik.epias.com.tr/transparency/piyasalar/gop/ptf.xhtml
Emissions from bus travel. Carbon independent.org. Retrieved from: Emissions from bus travel (carbonindependent.org)
ESHOT project. Retrieved from: https://www.eshot.gov.tr/tr/CevreselSonuclar
EV battery lifetime expectancy. Retrieved from: Electric Car Battery Life: Everything You Need to Know (caranddriver.com)
Fuel Economy in Hot Weather. US Department of Energy. Retrieved from: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/ feg/hotweather.shtml
Funke S. Á. & Burgert T. (June 2020). “Can Charging Infrastructure Used Only by Electric Taxis Be Profitable? A Case Study From Karlsruhe, Germany”. IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology, vol. 69, no. 6, pp. 5933-5944, doi: 10.1109/TVT.2020.2973597.
How much carbon dioxide is produced when different fuels are burned? (June 2021). US Energy Information Administration. Retrieved from: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Hsieh I-Y. L. et al. (2019). Learning only buys you so much: Practical limits on battery price reduction. Applied Energy, Volume 239, 2019, Pages 218-224, ISSN 0306-2619
Hu L. et al. (2018). Analyzing battery electric vehicle feasibility from taxi travel patterns: The case study of New York City, USA. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, Volume 87, Pages 91-104, ISSN 0968-090X
IEA (2020), Global EV Outlook 2020, IEA, Paris. Retrieved from: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev- outlook-2020
IEA (2021), Global EV Outlook 2021, IEA, Paris. Retrieved from: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev- outlook-2021
İETT – Timetable. Retrieved from: https://www.iett.istanbul/en/main/hatlar
Johnson C. et al. (2020). Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-74832
Khan T. & Frey H.C. (2019). Effect of Air-Conditioning on Light Duty Gasoline Vehicles Fuel Economy.
Transportation Research Record, 2673(5):131-141. doi:10.1177/0361198119838507
Kim J., Inho S. & Woongchul C. (2015). “An Electric Bus with a Battery Exchange System”. Energies 8, no. 7: 6806-6819. https://doi.org/10.3390/en8076806.
Li C. et al. (2021). Variability in real-world emissions and fuel consumption by diesel construction vehicles and policy implications, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 786, 2021, 147256, ISSN 0048-9697
Nimalsiri N. I., et al. (2021). “Coordinated Charge and Discharge Scheduling of Electric Vehicles for Load Curve Shaping”. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, doi: 10.1109/ TITS.2021.3071686.
Pelletier S. et al. (2019). The electric bus fleet transition problem. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, Volume 109, Pages 174-193, ISSN 0968-090X
Pelletier S., Jabali O. & Laporte G. (2018). Charge scheduling for electric freight vehicles. Transportation
Research Part B: Methodological, Volume 115, Pages 246-269, ISSN 0191-2615
Public Transportation in Istanbul. Retrieved from: https://www.iett.istanbul/en/main/pages/public- transportation-in-istanbul/316
Rastani S., Yüksel T. & Çatay B. (2019). Effects of ambient temperature on the route planning of electric freight vehicles. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and environment, Volume 74, Pages 124- 141, ISSN 1361-9209,
Rogge M., et al. (2018). Electric bus fleet size and mix problem with optimization of charging infrastructure. Applied Energy, Volume 211, Pages 282-295, ISSN 0306-2619
Roso V. & Martins M. (2016). “Simulation of Fuel Consumption and Emissions for Passenger Cars and Urban Buses in Real-World Driving Cycles,” SAE Technical Paper 2016-36-0443, https://doi.org/10.4271/2016- 36-0443.
Shenzhen’s silent revolution: world’s first fully electric bus fleet quietens Chinese megacity (December 2018). The Guardian. Retrieved from: Shenzhen’s silent revolution: world’s first fully electric bus fleet quietens Chinese megacity | Cities | The Guardian
This Chinese City Has 16,000 Electric Buses And 22,000 Electric Taxis (February 2021). Forbes. Retrieved from: This Chinese City Has 16,000 Electric Buses And 22,000 Electric Taxis (forbes.com)
Timperley J. (March 18th, 2020). How our daily travel harms the planet. BBC. Retrieved from: https://www. bbc.com/future/article/20200317-climate-change-cut-carbon-emissions-from-your-commute
Topal, O. & Nakir, İ. (2018). Total Cost of Ownership Based Economic Analysis of Diesel, CNG and Electric Bus Concepts for the Public Transport in Istanbul City. Energies (19961073), 11(9), p. 2369. doi: 10.3390/en11092369.
Turkey makes strides in producing electric automobiles (April 2021). TRT World. Retrieved from: https://www. trtworld.com/magazine/turkey-makes-strides-in-producing-electric-automobiles-45724 (last accessed September 10, 2021)
Turkey to become top electric vehicle producer: Erdogan (March 2021). Anadolu Agency. Retrieved from: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/turkey-to-become-top-electric-vehicle-producer-erdogan/2177914
World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2016 (Sector | End Use | Gas). Retrieved from: https://www.wri.org/ data/world-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2016
ZeEUS eBus Report #2. European Comission. Retrieved from: https://www.sustainable-bus.com/wp-content/ uploads/2018/06/zeeus-ebus-report-2.pdf
Zhang S. et al. (2014). Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of urban public buses in Beijing, Applied Energy, Volume 113, Pages 1645-1655, ISSN 0306-2619