Development progress of power prediction robot and platform: Its world level very long term prototyping example

Development progress of power prediction robot and platform: Its world level very long term prototyping example

Global Power Prediction Systems prototype version 2021 is presented with its system decomposition, scope, geographical/administrative/power grid decompositions, and similar. “Welcome”, “sign-up”, “log-in”, and “non-registered user main” web-interfaces are designed as draft on Quant UX. Map canvas is given as world political map with/without world power grid layers on QGIS 3.16.7-Hannover. Data input file is prepared based on several sources (1971-2018). It includes minimum and maximum values due to source value differences. 70/30 principle is applied for train/test splitting (training/testing sets: 1971-2003/2004-2018). 10 models are prepared on R version 4.1.1 with RStudio 2021.09.0+351. These are R::base(lm), R::base(glm), R::tidymodels::parsnip(engine("lm")), R::tidymodels::parsnip(engine("glmnet")) with lasso regularization, R::tidymodels::parsnip(engine("glmnet")) with ridge regularization, R::forecast(auto.arima) auto autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), R::forecast(arima) ARIMA(1,1,2), and ARIMA(1,1,8). Electricity demand in kilowatt-hours at the World level zone for up to 500-years (2019-2519) prediction period with only 1-year interval is forecasted. The best model is the auto ARIMA (mean absolute percentage error MAPE and symmetric mean absolute percentage error SMAPE for minimum and maximum electricity consumption respectively 1,1652; 6,6471; 1,1622; 6,9043). Ex-post and ex-ante plots with 80%-95% confidence intervals are prepared in R::tidyverse::ggplot2. There are 3 alternative scripts (long, short, RStudio Cloud). Their respective runtimes are 41,45; 25,44; and 43,33 seconds. Ex-ante 500-year period (2019-2519) is indicative and informative.

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Journal of Energy Systems-Cover
  • Başlangıç: 2017
  • Yayıncı: Erol KURT
Sayıdaki Diğer Makaleler

Model predictive control stabilization of a power system including a wind power plant

Islam Ahmed ALİ, Abdel Latif ELSHAFEİ

Investigation of the performance of ground-coupled heat exchanger technology for tempering air

Mahendra GOOROOCHURN, Maheshsingh MUNGUR, Heman SHAMACHURN, Yashwansingh SURNAM, Fardeen MANDARKHAN, Devin BHOODOO

Performance assessment of a magnetohydrodynamic power generation system: Division of the exergy destruction rate into its sub-portions

Prabin HALOİ, Tapan GOGOİ

The simulation of a new high frequency transformer

Sude HATEM, Erol KURT

Analysis and optimizes of hybrid wind and solar photovoltaic generation system for off-grid small village

Nabaz Mohammedalı RASOOL, Serkan ABBASOĞLU, Mehrshad HASHEMIPOUR

Step by step approach for developing analytical and experimental research facilities of a three-phase self-excited induction generator

Mohd Faısal KHAN, Mohd Rizwan KHAN

Fixed and adjusted optimal tilt angle of solar panels in three cities in Albania

Urim BUZRA, Driada MİTRUSHİ, Eduart SERDARİ, Daniela HALİLİ, Valbona MUDA

Numerical investigation of energy desorption from magnesium nickel hydride based thermal energy storage system

Sumeet Kumar DUBEY, K Ravi KUMAR

The analysis of three level inverter circuit with regard to current harmonic distortion by using ANFIS

Tuğba ATAR, Selami BALCI, Ahmet KAYABAŞI

Performance assessment of photovoltaic/thermal (PVT) hybrid adsorption-vapor compression refrigeration system

Mohamed GADO, Shinichi OOKAWARA, Sameh NADA, Hamdy HASSAN