TÜRKİYE’DE VERGİ CANLILIĞININ ANALİZİ
Vergi sisteminin etkinliğini ölçen vergi canlılığı, vergi gelirlerinin milli gelirdeki değişime ve ihtiyari düzenlemelere verdiği tepkilerin (gösterdiği değişimlerin) toplamıdır. Bu çalışmada Ocak 2005 ‐ Haziran 2014 dönemi arasında merkezi yönetim bütçe vergi gelirleri ve sanayi üretim endeksi (SUE) değişkenlerine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak, Türkiye’de vergi sisteminin canlılığı eşbütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modeli ile analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmanın ampirik sonuçlarına göre, kısa dönemde vergi sistemi iyi bir otomatik istikrarlandırıcı olmadığını ancak, uzun dönemde büyüme artışının mali sürdürülebilirliği olumlu etkilediğini göstermektedir.
AN ANALYSIS OF TAX BUOYANCY IN TURKEY
Tax Buoyancy which measures the effectiveness of tax system is the sum of the reactions in tax revenues (sum of the changes in tax revenues) to the changes in national income and the discretionary changes. In this study, the buoyancy of tax system in Turkey is analyzed with monthly data of centralized executive budget tax revenues and industrial production index (IPI) for the period of 2005 January to 2014 June by means of cointegration and error correction models. According to the results of the analysis, the tax system isn’t a good stabilizator in the short run, but the growth increment affects fiscal sustainability positively in the long run.
___
- Ahmed, Q. M. (1994). The Determinants of Tax Buoyancy: An Experience From the Developing Countries. The
- Pakistan Development Review. 33 (4) (Part II), 1089‐1098.
- Ahmed, Q.M., Mohammed, S. (2010). Determinant of Tax Buoyancy: Empirical Evidence from Developing
- Countries. Europen Journal of Social Sciences. 13 (3). 1‐7. Akbar, M., Ahmed Q. M. (1997). Elasticity and Buoyancy of Revenues and Expenditure of Federal Government.
- Pakistan Economic and Social Review. 35 (1) (Summer), 43‐56. Belinga, V., Benedek, D., Mooij R., Norregaard J. (2014). Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries. IMF Working Paper. No:WP/14/110.
- Bilquees, F. (2004). Elasticity and Buoyancy of the Tax System in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review. 43 (1) (Spring). 73‐93.
- Chowdhury, O.H., Hossain M. (1988). Elasticity and Buoyancy of Bangladesh Tax Structure. Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, Research Report, No. 80. Bangladesh.
- Durmuş, M. (2003). Ekonomik İstikrarın Sağlanması ve Kalkınmanın Finansmanı Bağlamında Maliye Politikaları,
- Teori ve Uygulamalarının Değerlendirilmesi. Ankara: Yaklaşım Yayınları. Ertürk Atabey, S., Avşar, T., Bulut M. (2009). Türkiye Verilerine Göre Vergi Canlılığı ve Esnekliğinin Tahmin
- Edilmesi. Ekonomik Yaklaşım. 20 (71), 109‐119. Gillani, S. F. (1986). Elasticity and Buoyancy of Federal Taxes in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review. XXV (2) (Summer), 163–174.
- Hamlet, K. K. J. (2013). Tax Buoyancy In The Eastern Carıbbean Currency Unıon and The Implications For Fiscal
- Consolidation: A Study Of The Commonwealth Of Dominica, St. Lucia and Antigua and Barbuda. http://www.ccmf‐uwi.org/files/publications/working_papers/2013KeithKyleJHamlet.pdf (Erişim: 02.10.2014).
- Haughton, J. (1998). Estimating Tax Buoyancy, Elasticity and Stability. http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNACE024.pdf (Erişim: 10.10.2014).
- Howard, M., La Foucade A., Scott, E. (2010). Public Sector Economics for Developing Countries. Barbados:
- University of the West Indies Press. Indraratna, Y., (2003). The Measurement of Tax Elasticity in Sri Lanka A Time Series Approach. Staff Studies. 33, 73‐109.
- Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 12, 231–254.
- Joumard, I., Andre C. (2008). Revenue Buoyancy and Its Fiscal Policy Implications. OECD Economics Department
- Working Papers.W. P.No.598. Kasipillai, J., Mustafa, M. M. (2000). Bouyancy Estimates of Malaysia’s Tax System: 1961‐1998. Malaysian
- Managment Journal. 4 (1&2), 75‐87. Kusi, N. K. (1998). Tax Reform and Revenue Productivity in Ghana. AERC Research Paper. Number Seventy‐Four, Nairobi: AERC.
- Mansfield, C.Y. (1972). Elasticity and Buoyancy of a Tax System: A Method Applied to Paraguay. International
- Monetary Fund Staff Papers. XIX (2), 425‐446 Mawia, M., Nzomoi, J. (2013). An Empirical Investigation of Tax Buoyancy in Kenya. African Journal of Business Management. 7 (40), 4233–4246.
- Milwood, T. (2011). Elasticity and Buoyancy of the Jamaican Tax System. Bank of Jamaica. 1‐24, http://www.boj.org.jm/uploads/pdf/papers_pamphlets/papers_pamphlets_Elasticity_and_Buoyancy_of_the_Ja maican_Tax_System.pdf (Erişim: 25.09.2014).
- Mishra, S. P. (2005). Elasticity and Buoyanacy of Sales Tax in Jharkhand. A Fiscal Policy Analysis Cell (FPAC).
- Project Government of Jharkhand. Mitchell, W., Andrews, L. (1999). Tax Buoyancies in Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Member Countries. Central
- Bank of Barbados Working Paper. W.P. No:1999‐13.
- Mukarram, F. (2001). Elasticity And Buoyancy Of Major Taxes In Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review.
- XXXIX (1) (Summer), 75‐86. Osoro, N.E. (1993). Revenue Productivity Implications of Tax Reform in Tanzania. AERCResearch Paper. No.20, Nairobi.
- Rajaraman I., Goyal R., Khundrakpam, J. K. (2005). Tax Buoyancy Estimates for Indian States. Working Paper
- Series. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=826345 (Erişim: 12.10.2008).
- Rasheed, F, (2006). An Analysis of the Tax Buoyancy Rates in Pakistan. Munich Personal RePEc Archive.No. 43388, Market Forces, 3 (2).
- Samwel, K. C., Isaac, M. K. (2012). Elasticity and Buoyancy of Tax Components and Tax Systems in Kenya.
- Research Journal of Finance and Accounting. 3 (5), 116‐125. Skeete, R., Coppin, K., Boamah, D. (2003). Elasticities and Buoyancies of the Barbados Tax System, 1977‐1999.
- Central Bank of Barbados Working Papers.133‐149 Şimşek, D. (2013). Türkiye’de Bölge Düzeyinde Vergi Esnekliği, Vergi Canlılığı, Vergi Kapasitesi ve Vergi
- Gayreti.(Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Ankara: T.C. Gazi Üniversitesi SBE Ekonometri Anabilim Dalı. Tarı, R. (2010), Ekonometri, İzmit‐Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayıncılık.
- Timsina, N. (2007). Tax Elasticity and Buoyancy in Nepal: A Revisit. NBR Economic Review.12, 9‐21.
- Twerefou D.F., Fumey, A., Osei‐Assibey, E., Asmah, E.E. (2010). Buoyancy and Elasticity of Tax: Evidence from
- Ghana. Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration.10 (2), 36‐70 Upender, M. (2008). Degree of Tax Bounyancy in India: An Empirical Study. International Journal of Applied
- Econometrics and Quantitative Studies.5 (2), 59‐70. Wawire N.H.W. (2000). Revenue Productivity Implications of Kenya’s Tax System. K. Kwaa Prah ve A. G. M Ahmed
- (Ed.). Africa in Transformation Political Economic Issues. Addis Ababa: OSREA, 1, 99‐106. Yousuf, M., Huq, S.M.J. (2013). Elasticity and Buoyancy of Major Tax Categories: Evidence from Bangladesh and
- Its Policy Implication. FDRS Research Study Series. No. 03/2013. http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr