İNOVASYONDAN İMALATA GEÇİŞTE TÜRK SANAYİNDE ÖNEMLİ BİR BİLEŞEN OLAN KALIPÇILIK SEKTÖRÜNÜN ULUSLARARASI REKABETÇİLİK ANALİZİ
Amaç - Söz konusu makalenin amacı, ileri zaman serisi analizi ve optimizasyon teknikleri yardımıyla kalıpçılık sektöründeki işletmelerin gelecek 10 yıllık dönemde rekabet gücünün nasıl geliştireceğine yönelik alternatif modellerin geliştirilmesi ve ilgili karar yapıcılarının hizmetine sunulabilir hale getirilmesidir. Yöntem - Doğrusal olmayan ARDL (NARDL) modeli yardımıyla kalıp ihracatının bileşenleri asimetrik etkileri hesaba katacak biçimde ele alınmıştır. EURO/TRY döviz kuru modelde hesaba katılırken, Almanya, Fransa ve İtalya’nın GSYİH’ları da NARDL modelinde bulunmaktadır. Asimetrik etkilerin hesaba katılması hususunda ise kümülatif toplamlar yaklaşımı dikkate alınmıştır. Bulgular - İtalya’nın GSYHİ’nın düşmesinin ülkede kalıpçılık sektörünü olumsuz etkileyeceği ve yerli üreticilere kauçuk ve plastik ürünlerin imalatı ve ihracatı kapsamında bir fırsat doğurabileceği öne sürülebilmektedir. Söz konusu bulgulara uygun olarak, kauçuk ve plastik ürünlerin imalatı ve ihracatı ile modelin diğer değişkenleri arasında genel anlamda herhangi bir asimetrik etki kısa ve uzun vade için geçerli değildir. Sonuç - Kalıp üretimi ve ihracatı kapsamında talebin önemli belirsizlikler taşıyor olması, işletmelerin bu süreçte üretim fonksiyonundaki toplam faktör verimliliklerini artırmaya odaklanmaları gerektiğinin altını çizmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler:
NARDL, asimetri, kümülatif toplamlar yaklaşımı, kalıpçılık sektörü, rekabet analizi
INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS ANALYSIS OF THE MOLDING INDUSTRY: AN IMPORTANT COMPONENT OF TURKISH INDUSTRY IN THE TRANSITION FROM INNOVATION TO MANUFACTURING
Purpose – The purpose of this article is to develop alternative models for how to improve the competitiveness of enterprises in the molding sector within the next 10 years by using advanced time series analysis and optimization techniques and to make them available to the relevant policy makers. Methodology – With the help of the non-linear ARDL (NARDL) model, the components of the mold export are analyzed to take into account the asymmetric effects. While the EURO/TRY exchange rate is considered in the model, the GDPs of Germany, France and Italy are also included in the NARDL model. The cumulative sums approach is taken into consideration in the context of the asymmetric effects. Findings – It can be argued that the decrease in the GDP of Italy will adversely affect the molding industry in the country and may create an opportunity for domestic producers within the scope of the manufacture and export of rubber and plastic products. In accordance with the findings, any asymmetric effect in general terms between the manufacture and export of rubber and plastic products and other variables of the model is not present for the short- and long-run. Conclusion – The fact that the demand has significant uncertainties within the scope of mold production and export underlines the need for enterprises to focus on increasing their total factor productivity in this process.
Keywords:
NARDL, asymmetry, cumulative sums approach, mold sector, competitiveness analysis,
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- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 2014
- Yayıncı: PressAcademia