Kovid-19 Pandemisi Sırasında Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dayanıklılığını 2050 Öngörüleriyle Değerlendirmek

Bu makale, Türkiye'nin 2050 reel GSYİH tahminlerini, pandemi öncesinde 2019'un sonuna kadar ve pandemi sırasında (2021'in sonuna kadar) tarihsel veriler ile spektral analiz kullanarak sunmaktadır. Makalenin amacı, 2020, 2021'de küresel ekonomiyi vuran ve 2022'ye yayılan Covid-19 pandemisinden kaynaklanan ekonomik şokun ardından Türkiye ekonomisinin direncini değerlendirmektir. Türkiye'nin 2050 tahminleri, Euro bölgesi (19 ülke)'nin 2050 GSYİH tahminleriyle kıyaslanmaktadır. Üç aylık Reel GSYİH büyüme oranları zaman serileri, tek boyutlu ayrık dalgacık analizi çerçevesinde, tahminler ve ayrıntılar olarak bilinen basit sinyallere ayrıştırılır. Sonuçlar, 2019'un ikinci çeyreği ile 2021'in dördüncü çeyreği arasında, Euro bölgesi ekonomisinin (19 ülke) üç aylık Reel GSYİH büyüme oranının (yıllıklandırılmış) çoğu zaman Türkiye'nin altında olduğunu ve Euro için ortalama %0,94 büyüme oranı olduğunu gösteriyor. Türkiye için bu oran %6.57'dir. Bu nedenle Türkiye, Covid-19 salgını sırasında Euro bölgesine göre daha dirençliydi. Sonuç olarak, yazarlar Türk ekonomik ve siyasi liderlerini son ekonomik gelişmeler ışığında Avrupa Birliği'ne katılmayı yeniden düşünmeye davet etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

GSYH, Spektral analiz, Dalgacık Analizi, Türkiye ekonomisi, Euro bölgesi ekonomileri

Assessing the Resilience of Turkey’s Economy during the Covid-19 Pandemic with its 2050 Projections

This paper presents Turkey’s 2050 real GDP forecasts using historical data before the pandemic up to the end of 2019 and during the pandemic (up to the end of 2021) using spectral analysis. The objective of the paper is to assess the resilience of Turkey’s economy following the economic shock from the Covid-19 pandemic that hit the global economy in 2020, 2021 and extending in 2022. The Turkey 2050 forecasts are benchmarked to the 2050 GDP forecasts of the Euro Area (19 countries). The quarterly Real GDPs growth rates time series are decomposed into simple signals known as approximations and details within the framework of the one-dimensional discrete wavelet analysis. The simplified signals are then recomposed with Burg extension. The results show that between Q2 2019 and Q4 2021, the quarterly Real GDP growth rate (annualized) of the Euro area economy (19 countries) was most of the time below the one of Turkey with an average growth rate of 0.94% for the Euro area versus 6.57% for Turkey. Therefore, Turkey was more resilient during the Covid-19 pandemic than the Euro area. Using the 2022-2050 forecasts of both economies, by subtracting the 2022-2050 average Euro area quarterly growth rate forecast (annualized) obtained with the 1998-2021 data, +2%, by the one obtained with the 1998-2019 data, +1.03%, the difference is +0.97%, when with Turkey the difference is +2.30% [0.12% - (-2.17%)]. Thus, Turkey shows a higher resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic (+2.30%) than the Euro area (+0.97%) based on 2022-2050 forecasts. However, the authors pointed out that the average of the 2022-2050 quarterly (annualized) growth rate forecast of the Euro area is expected to be +2.00% with the 1998-2021 data whereas it is expected to be only +0.12% for Turkey. In conclusion, the authors invite Turkish economic and political leaders to reconsider joining the European Union in the light of recent economic developments.

Keywords:

GDP, Spectral Analysis, Wavelet Analysis, Turkey economy, Eurozone economies,

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