Tasarruf-Yatırım İlişkisi: Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin OECD Ülkeleri Açısından Değerlendirilmesi (1980-2013)

Ekonomik büyüme verimlilik artışlarından bağımsız olarak yatırımlarla gerçekleşmekte,yatırımlar ise ancak tasarruflarla karşılanabilmektedir. Bu noktada, yurtiçi tasarrufların yurtiçi yatırımları karşılama oranının ya da yurtiçi yatırımların yabancı tasarruflara olanbağımlılığının belirlenmesi gerekmektedir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada, yurtiçi tasarruflar ile yurtiçi yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiler tasarruf-yatırım dengelerine göre gruplandırılan 28 OECD üyesi ülkede Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezi çerçevesinde, 1980-2013 dönemine ait verilerle ve yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan yeni nesil panel veri analizi metodolojisi ile incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda, tanımlanan ülke gruplarında yurtiçi tasarrufların yurtiçi yatırımları karşılama oranlarının yani sermaye hareketliliğinin derecesinin ülkelerin tasarruf-yatırım dengelerine göre önemli ölçüde değiştiği tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, çalışmada tasarruf fazlası veren ülkelerde Feldstein-Horioka Hipoteziningeçerli olduğu aksine tasarruf açığı veren ülkelerde ise Feldstein-Horioka Paradoksunun nispeten sürmekte olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yurtiçi Tasarruf-Yatırım, Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezi, Yeni Nesil Panel Veri Analizi

Saving-Investment Relationship: Evaluation of The Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis in Terms of OECD Countries (1980-2013)

Economic growth as regardless of productivity increase has to took placed with investments, the investments simply can be met by savings. At this point, it is required that identification the ratio of domestic savings to meet domestic investments or domestic investments of dependence on foreign savings. In this respect the study, in the frame Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis, it is aimed that on 28 OECD member countries which according to the saving-investment balance is grouped, the relationship between domestic savings and domestic investments investigation by using a new generation of panel data analysis methodology which cross-section dependence taking into account and data for the period 1980-2013. As a result of the study, it has been determined that the ratios of domestic savings to meet domestic investments namely the degree of capital mobility on defined country groups, according to the saving-investment balance of the country significantly is varied. At the same time, in the study it has been concluded that Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis is accepted in countries with saving surplus, conversely Feldstein-Horioka Paradox is relatively continued in countries with saving deficient.

Keywords:

Domestic Saving-Investment, Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis, A New Generation of Panel Data Analysis,

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