TÜRKİYE’DE İSLAMİ BANKACILIK, FİNANSAL GELİŞME VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİLERİNİN DOĞRUSAL VE DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YÖNTEMLERLE ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de İslami bankacılık, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri, 2005:4 ve 2020:1 dönemine ilişkin çeyrekli veriler kullanılarak yürütülen doğrusal (geleneksel) ve doğrusal olmayan (Fourier serisi yaklaşımına dayanan) birim kök testleri ve Granger nedensellik analizleri aracılığıyla aydınlatılmaya çalışılmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular üç ayrı kümede özetlenebilir: (i) Geleneksel ve doğrusal olmayan Granger nedensellik tahmin yöntemlerinden elde edilen bulgular, İslami bankacılık ve ekonomik büyüme arasında herhangi bir yönde nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmadığı sonucunu ortaya koymaktadır. (ii) Geleneksel test, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edemezken; doğrusal olmayan yöntem, finansal gelişmenin “Granger nedeni” olarak ekonomik büyümeye işaret etmektedir. (iii) Son olarak, İslami bankacılık ve finansal gelişme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi geleneksel Granger nedensellik testi ile yakalanamazken; doğrusal olmayan yöntem, bu iki değişken arasında her iki yönde Granger nedensellik bulunduğu sonucunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türk İslami Bankacılık Endüstrisi, Fourier Granger Nedensellik Testi, Kesirli Fourier ADF Birim Kök Testi, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme

THE ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS AMONG ISLAMIC BANKING, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY BY LINEAR AND NONLINEAR PROCEDURES

This study investigates the causal relationships among Islamic banking, financial development, and economic growth in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 2005:4 – 2020:1 and conducting linear (conventional) as well as nonlinear (Fourier series approximation) unit root testing procedures and Granger causality analyses. The empirical findings can be classified into the following three groups: (i) The evidence from both conventional and nonlinear Granger causality methods revealed that there is no causal relationship between Islamic banking and economic growth in any direction. (ii) While the linear procedure fails to capture a causal link between financial development and economic growth, the nonlinear procedure on the contrary points to economic growth as the “Granger cause” of financial development. (iii) Finally, while the conventional Granger causality test proved to miss the causal relationship between Islamic banking and financial development, the findings from the nonlinear test disclosed that there is a two-way Granger causality between these two variables.

Keywords:

Turkish Islamic Banking Industry, Fourier Granger Causality Test, Fractional Fourier ADF Unit Root Test, Financial Development, Economic Growth,

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