Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?

Çevre ülkelerin borç krizleri üzerine hâkim görüş, bu ekonomilerin ağırlıklı olarak iç dinamiklerinden kaynaklı şoklara maruz kaldığı ve temerrütlerin kendine özgü bir yapıya sahip olduğu şeklindedir. Ne var ki, finans sermayesinin gelişimine paralel olarak çevre ülkelerdeki borç krizlerinin çoğu; merkez ülkelerdeki dinamikler tarafından şekillenen sistematik bir yapıya sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, söz konusu yapıyı borç dalgaları üzerinden araştırmak ve bu dalgaların ekonomi politik dinamiklerine ışık tutmaktır. Bunun için Türkiye’deki borçlanma süreçleri tarihsel bir perspektiften masaya yatırılmıştır. Bu analizde merkez ülkelerdeki faiz oranları, Türkiye’deki borç krizlerinin ana belirleyeni olarak tespit edilmiştir. Dünya sahnesinde hegemonik bir gücün varlığı ise borç dalgalarının seyrini belirleyen temel politik etken olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Aynı zamanda borç krizinin belirleyenlerinin araştırıldığı ampirik analizde; faiz oranları, yüksek enflasyon, GSYH büyümesi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların GSYH’ye oranı ve kısa vadeli borçların rezervlere oranı temel dinamikler olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, dış borcun sürdürülebilirliği ve Türkiye gibi ağır borçlu bir ekonominin tekrarlayan borç krizlerinden kaçınmasının mümkün olup olmadığı konusunda değişen görüşler tartışılmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Dış Borç Dalgaları, Hegemonik Güç, Borç Krizi

External Debt Cycles of the Turkish Economy: Is it Possible to Escape the Crisis?

The prevailing view on the debt crises experienced by peripheral countries is that their economies are primarily exposed to shocks arising from existing internal dynamics and defaults follow a unique process. However, parallel to the development of financial capital, most debt crises in the peripheral countries have a systemic structure shaped by the dynamics of the core countries. The aim of this study is to investigate the structure in question through debt cycles and to shed light on the political economy dynamics of these cycles. Hence, foreign borrowing in Turkiye is examined from a historical perspective. In the present analysis, interest rates in core countries are identified as the main determinant of boom periods and consequent debt crises. The presence of a hegemonic power in the world economy is a major political dynamic behind the debt cycles. At the same time, the determinants of the debt crisis were empirically tested by considering 21 developing countries between 1970 and 2017. Interest rates, high inflation, GDP growth, the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP, and the ratio of short-term debt to reserves are determined to be the main dynamics. In this context, we discuss contrasting views on the sustainability of external debt and whether it is possible for a heavily indebted economy like Turkiye to escape recurring debt crises.

Keywords:

External Debt Cycles, Hegemonic Power, Debt Crisis,

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