Konut piyasası hareketleri ve makroekonomik değişkenler: Türkiye Konut Piyasasının yeni mortgage sistemi altında analizi

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı ülkemizdeki konut piyasası hareketleri ile dinamik nedensellik ilişkisine sahip olan değişkenleri belirlemektir. Çalışma kapsamında tüketici fiyat endeksi (CPI), para arzı (M2), faiz oranı(IR), sanayi üretim endeksi (IPI), gayrimenkul yatırım ortaklıkları endeksi (REITIX) ve ipotek kredilerinin hacmi (ML) olmak üzere altı değişken yer almaktadır. Granger nedensellik testi, etki-tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrışım modellerinin kullanıldığı çalışma 2002 – 2007 dönemini kapsamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Konut Yatırımları, Granger Nedensellik Testi, Varyans Ayrışım Modelleri

Housing Market Activity and Macroeconomic Variables: An Analysis of Turkish Dwelling Market under New Mortgage System

The primary purpose of this paper is to examine dynamic causal relationships between housing market activity (construction permits for private use) and six determinants, including consumer price index (CPI), monetary aggregate (M2), interest rate (IR), industrial production index (IPI), real estate investment trusts’ indices (REITIX) and volume of mortgage loans (ML), in Turkish dwelling market under new mortgage system. Granger causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decomposition models are utilized for the period 2002 to 2007.

Keywords:

Housing Investment, Granger Causality Tests, Variance Decomposition Models,

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