Finansal başarısızlığın tahmini: diskriminant ve lojistik regresyon analizlerinin karşılaştırılması

Bu çalışma; 1997-2007 döneminde halka açık ve halka kapalı toplam 122 işletmeden oluşan örneklem ile iki istatistiksel yöntem kullanarak işletmelerin finansal başarısızlığı bir ve iki yıl öncesinden tahmin etmeye ve finansal başarısızlığın öngörülmesinde yararlı olan finansal oranları ortaya çıkarmaya çalışmaktadır. Çalışmada Diskriminant ve Lojistik Regresyon Analizleri uygulanmış ve modellerin tahmin güçleri karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar; finansal başarısızlığa uğramış işletmelerin çoğunun finansal sıkıntı belirtilerini başarısızlıktan çok önce gösterdiklerine ve çalışmada kullanılan yöntemlerin arasında tahmin gücü ve değişken seçimi konusunda istatistiki açıdan önemli fark olmadığına işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İşletmelerde Finansal Başarısızlık, Başarısızlık Tahmini, Diskriminant Analizi, Lojistik Regresyon Analizi, Finansal Sıkıntı

Prediction of business failure: a comparison of discriminant and logistic regression analyses

This paper investigates two predictive models of business failure and important financial variables detecting failure potential using the sample of 122 both publicly opened and closed firms from the period of 1999-2007. Discriminant and Logistic Regression Analyses are performed and their predictive accuracy are compared. The results demonstrate that most of the failed firms show the signs of financial distress long before the failure and no statistically significant difference between the prediction results and variable choice of the discriminant and logistic regression analyses.

Keywords:

Business Failure, Failure Prediction, Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression Analysis, Financial Distress,

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