Türkiye ile Avrupa Birliği Ülkeleri Arasındaki İmalat Sanayi Endüstri İçi Ticaretin Belirleyicileri

Geleneksel dış ticaret teorileri, faktör donatım farklılıklarından ortaya çıkan endüstriler arası dış ticareti açıklamaktadır. Başka bir deyişle, geleneksel dış ticaret teorileri, endüstriler arası ticaretin gelişmişlik düzeyi farklı ülkeler arasında gerçekleştiğini savunmaktadır. Bu bağlamda bu teoriler, gelişmişlik düzeyi aynı olan ülkeler arasındaki dış ticareti açıklamakta yetersiz kalmaktadır. Endüstri içi ticaret kavramı, önceleri gelişmiş ülkelerin arasındaki dış ticareti açıklamak için kullanılmış olup, daha sonra gelişmişlik düzeyleri farklı ülkeler arasındaki dış ticaret için de kullanılmıştır. Bu açıdan değerlendirildiğinde, endüstri içi ticaret kavramı hem iktisat hem de dış ticaret literatüründe önemli yere sahiptir. Türkiye’nin dış ticareti verileri incelendiğinde; dış ticaret ortağı olarak AB (Avrupa Birliği) ve sektör olarak imalat sanayi ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, 1996-2017 döneminde Türkiye ile AB ülkeleri arasında imalat sanayi endüstri içi ticaretinin ölçülmesi ve belirleyicilerinin analiz edilmesidir. Literatürde endüstri içi ticareti ölçmek için statik, yarı dinamik ve dinamik özellikli birçok endeks yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmada ise, endüstri içi ticaretin seviyesini ölçerken GL (Grubel-Lloyd) endeksinden faydalanılmıştır. Ayrıca endüstri içi ticaretin belirleyicilerinin ortaya konduğu analizlerde GL endeksinin yanı sıra AE (Aquino) endeksi kullanılmıştır. Türkiye ile AB ülkeleri arasındaki imalat sanayi endüstri içi ticaretin belirleyicilerinin ortaya koymak amacıyla SGMM (Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu) kullanılmıştır. GL endeksine göre, Türkiye’nin İtalya ve İspanya ile olan imalat sanayi dış ticaretinin %40’dan fazlası endüstri içi ticaretten oluşmaktadır. SGMM sonuçlarına göre, hem GL endeksinde hem de AE endeksinde anlamsız çıkan değişkenler, ticaret ortağının ticari açıklığı ve sınır komşuluğudur. SGMM sonuçları, iki ülke arasındaki GSYH (gayri safi yurt içi hasıla) farkı, kişi başı GSYH farkı, ticari açıklık farkı, uzaklık ve ticari dengesizlik arttıkça imalat sanayi endüstri içi ticaretin azaldığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca iki ülke GSYH ortalaması, Türkiye’nin ticaret ortağına ticari açıklığı ve ticari yoğunluğu arttıkça ise imalat sanayi endüstri içi ticaret artmaktadır. Analizde kukla değişken olarak dikkate alınan aynı denizi paylaşmanın endüstri içi ticareti pozitif yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Endüstri içi ticaret, GL endeksi, AE endeksi, İmalat Sanayi, SGMM

The Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in The Manufacturing Industry Between Turkey and The European Union Countries

Traditional foreign trade theories explain inter-industry foreign trade that arises from factor endowment differences. In other words, traditional foreign trade theories argue that inter-industry trade takes place between countries with different levels of development. In this context, these theories are insufficient to explain foreign trade between countries with same levels of development. The concept of intra-industry trade was used to explain foreign trade between developed countries, and then it was also used for foreign trade between countries with different levels of development. When evaluated from this point of view, the concept of intra-industry trade has an important place in both economics and foreign trade literature.When Turkey's foreign trade data is examined; EU (European Union) as a foreign trade partner and the manufacturing industry as a sector come to the fore. The main purpose of this study is to measure intra-industry trade between Turkey and EU countries in the manufacturing industry for the period 1996-2017 and is analyzing the determinants. In the literature, there are many indices with static, semi-dynamic and dynamic properties to measure intra-industry trade. In this study, while measuring the level of intra-industry trade, GL (Grubel-Lloyd) index was used. Also, in the analysis that is revealed the determinants of intra-industry trade, AE (Aquino) index in addition to GL index was used. System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) was used for revealing the determinants of intra-industry trade between Turkey and EU countries Turkey in the manufacturing industry. According to the GL index, more than 40% of foreign trade of Turkey’s manufacturing industry with Spain and Italy consists of intra-industry trade. According to the SGMM results, the variables that are insignificant in both the GL index and the AE index are the trade openness of the trading partner and border neighborhood. SGMM results show that the increases of the GDP (gross domestic product) difference, GDP per capita difference, trade openness difference, distance between the two countries and trade imbalance decrease intra-industry trade in the manufacturing industry. In addition, the increases of the average GDP of two countries, Turkey’s trade openness against the trading partner and trade intensity raises intra-industry trade in the manufacturing industry. It was determined that sharing the same sea, which is considered as a dummy variable in the analysis, positively affects intra-industry trade.

Keywords:

Intra-industry trade, GL index, AE index, Manufacturing Industry, SGMM,

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