Zelha ALTINKAYA, Kaveh AHMADİ ADLİ, Uğur ŞENER

OECD Ülkeleri Örneğinde Türkiye’nin İhracat Analizi: 1982Q1 ve 2021Q1

Uluslararası ekonomi, öncelikle, dış ticaretin serbestleştirilmesine, ve bu serbestleşmenin bir ülkenin gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH) üzerindeki etkilerine odaklanır. Özellikle, Türkiye, dünya ekonomisindeki pek çok gelişmekte olan ülke gibi, ekonomisinde yaşanan istikrarsızlıkların etkisiyle, 24 Ocak 1980 tarihinden itibaren, neoliberal dış ticaret politikaları izlemeye başlamıştır. Bu nedenle, neo-liberal ticaret politikalarının Türkiye ihracatı üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmek çok daha fazla önem kazanmıştır. Özellikle, Türkiye’de 1994, 2001, 2018 döviz krizleri, 1997 Asya krizi, 2007-2009 küresel finansal krizi ile 2020-2022 Covid 19 küresel durgunluk dönemleri, bu önemi daha da artırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, ihracatında en büyük paya sahip olan OECD ülkelerinin GSYH’ lerindeki değişikliklerin, Türkiye’nin dış ticaretini etkilediği varsayılmaktadır. Bu çalışma, OECD ülkelerinin GSYH^deki değişimlerin, dış ticaret hadleri (TOT) ve döviz (döviz) oynaklığının, Türkiye’nin ihracat talep fonksiyonunu oluşturan önemli değişkenler olduğunu iddia etmektedir. Bu değişkenlerin, Türkiye ihracat modeli üzerindeki etkisi otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) yöntemi ile analiz edilmektedir. Araştırma, 1982Ç1-2021Ç1 arasındaki döneme ait istatistiklere dayanmaktadır. Sonuçlar, Türkiye'nin ihracatının OECD'nin GSYH ve Türk Lirası-ABD doları kurunun değişimi ile istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir korelasyona sahip olduğunu, ancak ticaret hadleri ile ilişkilendirmediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Ancak, gecikmeli değişkenler ADRL yöntemi ile değerlendirildiğinde, beş dönem gecikmeli Türkiye ihracatının iki dönem gecikmeli OECD GSYH, bir dönem gecikmeli döviz kuru değişimleri ve bir dönem gecikmeli ticaret hadleri ile istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişkisi vardır. Bu da, ihracat pazarındaki OECD ülkelerinin GSYH’ndeki değişimlerin, Türkiye’nin ihracatını doğrudan etkilendiğini ortaya koyduğu gibi, COVID-19 salgını gibi ekonomik durgunluğa neden olan durumlarda, bu ülke ekonomilerdeki değişimlerin Türkiye ihracatı üzerinde ne kadar etkili olacağı konusunda öngörüde bulunmasını sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türkiye, OECD; İhracat, Döviz Kuru, Ticaret Hadleri, ARDL, Neoliberalizm

Türkiye’s Export Analysis with Specific Reference to OECD Countries: 1982Q1 and 2021Q1

International economics is a field that primarily examines the liberalization of trade and its impact on a country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The trade policies in the World economy, specifically Türkiye as a developing economy, have experienced different cycles since the 1980s, and Türkiye has been following liberal trade policies in an attempt to overcome instabilities in its economy since 24 January 1980. In particular, the long-term, including, the 1994, 2001, 2018 currency crises in Türkiye, the 1997 Asia, the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, and the 2020-2022 Covid 19 global recession, further increases significance of the analysis. This article specifically explores the effects of neo-liberal trade policies on Türkiye and its primary export market, the OECD countries. In particular, the impact of changes in the OECD Countries’ GDP on Turkish exports is analyzed in relation to the Terms of Trade (TOT) and foreign exchange (FX) volatility of the Turkish Lira through Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results reveal that Türkiye’s exports follow a statistically significant correlation with OECD’s GDP and FX volatility but not with the TOT for the period between 1982Q1 to 2021Q1. However, the lagged variables evaluated by the ADRL method indicate that five periods of lagging Turkish exports have a statistically significant relationship with two periods of lagging GDP of OECD, and one period of lagging FX, as well as with one period of lagging TOT. This article also offers valuable insights into the impact of exceptional events like COVID-19 pandemic on national economies, thus findings presented in this paper can help governments and policy makers predict potential implications of other extraordinary circumstances or global disasters and make informed decisions to mitigate their impact on the national economy. This is a long term analysis of neoliberal FX policies applied in Türkiye.

Keywords:

Türkiye, OECD; Export, Foreign Exchange, Terms of Trade, ARDL, Neoliberalism,

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