Rabia EFEOĞLU, Sabri AZGÜN, Ömer Selçuk EMSEN

Makroekonomik Performans Göstergelerinin Yolsuzluğa Etkisi

“Kamu gücünün özel çıkarlar için kötüye kullanılması” olarak tanımlanan yolsuzluk ekonomik, politik, hukuki ve sosyo-kültürel belirleyicileri olan bir kavramdır. Ülkeden ülkeye farklılık gösteren yolsuzluğun ölçümü ise pek mümkün olmamakla birlikte yolsuzluk algı ölçümü yapılabilmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı söz konusu belirleyicilerden yalnızca ekonomik belirleyicilerin yolsuzluk ile ilişkisini test etmektir. Bu kapsamda 2001-2017 dönemi için APEC (Asya Pasifik Ekonomik İşbirliği) ülkelerinde makroekonomik performans göstergelerinin yolsuzluğa etkisi panel sıralı nitel tercih yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Makroekonomik performans göstergeleri büyüme, enflasyon, işsizlik, gelir eşitsizliği ve dışa açıklık olarak belirlenmiş, dışa açıklık değişkeni ticari küreselleşme endeksi ile tanımlanmıştır. Yolsuzluk algı endeksi bağımlı değişkendir ve endeksin en yüksek değeri 0, en düşük değeri 10’dur. Bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılan yolsuzluk algılama endeksi sıralı bir değişken olduğu için sıralı nitel tercih modelleri kullanılmıştır. Ekonometrik analizler sonucu elde edilen bulgulara göre kişi başına GSYH ve ticari küreselleşme endeksi arttıkça yolsuzluk endeks değeri de artmakta, diğer bir ifadeyle yolsuzluk azalmaktadır. Enflasyon oranı ve Gini katsayısı (gelir eşitsizliği) arttıkça yolsuzluk endeks değeri azalmakta, yolsuzluk artmaktadır. İşsizlik oranı arttıkça yolsuzluk endeks değeri önce artmakta (yolsuzluk azalmakta), sonra azalmaktadır (yolsuzluk artmakta). Çalışmada makroekonomik performans göstergelerinin yolsuzluğun düşük düzeylerinde daha etkili ve düşük yolsuzluk düzeyini etkileme olasılığının ise daha yüksek olduğu sonucu elde edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla gelir seviyesini artırabilen ve bunun adil dağıtımını sağlayarak işsizliği azaltan, dünya ekonomisi ile entegrasyon derecesini yükselten ve enflasyon oranını düşük tutabilen ülkelerde yolsuzluğun da düşeceği ortaya koyulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yolsuzluk, Makroekonomik Performas, Sıralı Nitel Tercih Analizi

The Effect of Macroeconomic Performance Indicators on Corruption

Corruption, defined as “abuse of public power for private interests” is a concept with economic, political, legal and socio-cultural determinants. Measurement of corruption, which differs from country to country, is not possible, but perception of corruption can be measured. The purpose of the study is to test only the determinants of the economic determinants' relationship with corruption. In this context, the impact of macroeconomic performance indicators on corruption in APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) countries for the period of 2001-2017 was analyzed by the panel-ordered qualitative preference method. Macroeconomic performance indicators are determined as growth, inflation, unemployment, income inequality and openness, and the openness variable is defined by the commercial globalization index. Corruption perception index is dependent variable and the highest value of the index is 0 and the lowest value is 10. Since the corruption perception index used as a dependent variable is an ordered variable, ordered qualitative preference models are used. According to the findings obtained as a result of econometric analysis, as the per capita GDP and commercial globalization index increases, the corruption index also increases, in other words, the corruption decreases. As the inflation rate and Gini coefficient (income inequality) increase, the corruption index decreases and corruption increases. As the unemployment rate increases, the corruption index first increases (corruption decreases), then decreases (corruption increases). It is concluded that macroeconomic performance indicators are more effective at lower levels of corruption and is higher likely to effect the lower level of corruption. Therefore, it has been revealed that corruption will decrease in countries that can increase the income level and reduce the unemployment by ensuring its fair distribution, increase the degree of integration with the world economy and keep the inflation rate low.

Keywords:

Corruption, Macroeconomic Performance, Ordered Qualitative Preference Analysis,

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