Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışmada, üretici fiyat endeksi (ÜFE), kur, faiz ve gelirin konut satışlarına etkisi Türkiye örneğinde incelenmiştir. 2013:M1-2021:M10 dönemini kapsayan analiz Sınır Testi (ARDL) yöntemiyle yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın ampirik bulgularına göre, ÜFE ve kurlar konut satışlarını pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Buna göre ÜFE %10 arttığında konut satışları %7 oranında artmaktadır. Kurlar %10 arttığında ise konut satışları %4 oranında artmaktadır. Konut kredi faiz oranları ise beklendiği gibi konut satışlarını negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Konut kredi faiz oranları %10 arttığında konut satışları %0.1 oranında azalmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Konut Satışları, ÜFE, Döviz Kurları, Faiz, Gelir

Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rates and Income on House Sales: a Case of Turkiye

In this study, the effects of the producer price index (PPI), exchange rate, interest, and income on house sales were examined in the case of Turkey. The study was conducted using the Boundary Test (ARDL) method of analysis and spanned the period 2013:M1-2021:M10. According to the empirical findings of the study, PPI and exchange rates have a positive effect on house sales. As a result, when PPI increases by 10%, house sales rise by 7%. House sales increase by 4% when exchange rates rise by 10%. Housing loan interest rates, on the other hand, have a negative impact on housing sales, as expected. House sales fall by 0.1% when mortgage interest rates rise by 10%. These findings indicate that house sales in Turkey are impacted by inflation and exchange rates. This situation, which contradicts the law of demand, stems from the fact that purchasing a house in Turkey is regarded as a significant investment and an anti-inflationary tool. Furthermore, despite the inflationary pressures caused by the exchange rate, foreigners play an important role in the continuation of housing sales and prices.

Keywords:

Exchange Rates, Home Sales, Interest Rates, Income, PPI,

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