NİCELİKSEL GEVŞEME PARA POLİTİKASI ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME: JAPONYA DENEYİMİ

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Japonya Merkez Bankası’nın uyguladığı para politalarının ülke ekonomisi üzerindeki etkilerini ve bu politikaların, ekonominin içerisine girmiş olduğu uzun süreli depresyonist eğilim ile ilişkisini çözümlemektir. Buna göre, Japonya Merkez Bankası tarafından 2001Q1–2013Q3 örneklem dönemi içerisinde uygulanan niceliksel gevşeme para politikalarının derneşik talep üzerindeki olası etkileri araştırılmıştır. Ekonometrik zaman serisi modeli reel milli gelir, parasal taban, faiz oranı, borsa endeksi ve yen/dolar paritesi içsel değişkenleri kullanılarak Johansen eşbütünleşme tahmin yöntemiyle ortaya konulmuştur. Çözümleme bulguları –değişkenlere ait bütün katsayıların istatistiksel anlamlılığı altında– parasal tabanda ve borsa endeksinde meydana gelen %1’lik bir artışın, faiz oranlarındaki %1’lik bir azalışın reel milli gelir üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etkiye; yen/dolar paritesindeki %1’lik bir artışın ise reel milli gelir üzerinde pozitif değil negatif bir etkiye neden olduğunu göstermiştir. Yapılan çalışma Japonya ekonomisinin tanımlayıcı temel özelliklerine ait çıkarsamaları uzun dönemli bir bakış açısıyla desteklemekle birlikte, reel milli gelir ve döviz kuru arasındaki negatif ilişki tahmin bulgularımızı desteklememiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Japonya Merkez Bankası, Niceliksel Gevşeme Para Politikası, Eşbütünleşme

AN INVESTIGATION ON QUANTITATIVE EASING MONETARY POLICY: EXPERIANCE OF JAPAN

The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Japan on the country’s economy and the relationship between long-term depression trend the economy entered into. In this respect, the possible effects on the aggregate demand of quantitative easing monetary policies which are applied by Central Bank of Japan in 2001Q1–2013Q3 sample period are investigated. Econometric time series model is carried out with Johansen cointegration estimation method using real national income, monetary base, interest rate, stock index and yen/dollar parity internal variables. Analysis findings –under the statistical significance of all coefficients of variables– show that a 1% increase occuring in the monetary base and the stock index causes to while a %1 decrease in interest rates has a positive effect on real national income, a 1% increase in yen/dollar parity has a negative effect on real national income. The study supports the inference belongs to basic descriptive features of Japan’s economy in the long-term perspective, however, a negative relationship between real national income and exchange rate does not support our forecast findings.

Keywords:

Bank of Japan, quantitative easing monetary policy, cointegration,

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