ENFLASYON HEDEFLEMESİ VE TÜRKİYE DENEYİMİ

Bu çalısma, Türkiye’deki enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulamasının performansını analiz etmektedir. Bu kapsamda enflasyon hedeflemesinin, enflasyon oynaklıgı ve sürekliligi ile çıktı oynaklıgı üzerindeki etkisi incelenmistir. Para politikasının enflasyon ve büyüme üzerindeki etkisini görmek için enflasyon ve endüstriyel büyümenin para politikası soklarına verdigi tepki, etki-tepki fonksiyonları ile tahmin edilmistir. Çalısmanın sonuçları enflasyon hedeflemesinin çıktı büyümesi üzerinde açık bir maliyet yaratmadan, enflasyonun düsürülmesi için uygun bir ortam yarattıgını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Enflasyon hedeflemesi, enflasyon, etki-tepki fonksiyonları, Türkiye

INFLATION TARGETTING: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Inflation Targetting: The Case of Turkey This paper examines the implementation and performance of inflation targeting in Turkey. In this context, the effects of inflation targeting on inflation volatility and persistency and output volatility are discussed. The impulse responses of inflation and output growth to a monetary policy shock are also estimated to identify monetary policy impacts on these variables. Our results show that the adoption of inflation targetting is a good framework for reducing inflation without apparent costs on economic growth

Keywords:

Inflation targetting, inflation, impulse-response functions, Turkey,

PDF

___

Akyazı, H., A. Ekinci (2008) “Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejiminin Performansı: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler ve Türkiye Karşılaştırması”, Marmara Üniversitei İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, XXIV, 1.
Aşıkoğlu, Y., M. Uçtum (1992) “A Critical Evaluation of Exchange Rate Policy in Turkey”, World Development, 20(10), 1501–1514.
Ball, L.P. (1992) “Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty?” Journal of Monetary Economics, 29(3), 371-388.
Ball, L., N. Sheridan (2003) “Does Inflation Targeting Matter?” NBER Calışma Tebliği, No. 9577.
Bernanke, B. S., S. F. Mishkin (1997) “Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?” NBER Working Paper Series, No. 5893.
Bernanke, B., T. Laubach, F. Mishkin, A. Posen (1999) Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Bryan, M.F., S.G. Cecchetti, R.L. Wiggins (1997) “Efficient Inflation Estimation” NBER Working Paper, No. 6183.
Cecchetti, G., M. Ehrmann (1999) “Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers’ Preferences and Outcomes” NBER Working Paper, No. 7426.
Corbo, V., O. Landarretche, K. Schmidt-Hebbel (2002) “Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference, in Inflation Targeting : Design, Performance, Challenges”, in N. Loayza, R. Soto (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Design, Performance, Challenges, Santiago: Central Bank of Chile, 221–69.
Cukierman, A., A. Meltzer (1986) “A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibiliry and Inflation Under Discretion and Asymmetric Inflation”, Econometrica, 54(5), 1099- 1128.
Ersel, H., F. Özatay (2008) “Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Turkey”, Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, November–December Issue, 44(6), 38–51.
Ermişoğlu, E. (2013) “Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi: Bir Başarı Hikayesi mi?”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 7(1), 31-58.
Folkertsma, C.K., K. Hubrich (2001) "Performance of Core Inflation Measures”, Economist, 149(4), 455-508.
Friedman, M. (1997) “Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment”, Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451-472.
Friedman, B., K.N. Kuttner (1996) “A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 77–125.
Genç, İ.H., M. Balcılar (2012) “Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting in Turkey”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 48(5), 35-47.
Johnson, D.R. (2002) “The Effect of Inflation Targeting on the Behavior of Expected Inflation: Evidence from an 11 Country Panel”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(8), 1521-1538.
Jonas, J., F.S. Mishkin (2003) “Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 9667.
Kahn, G., K. Parrish (1998) “Conducting Monetary Policy with Inflation Targets,” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 83, 5-32.
Kara, H., F. Öğünç (2008) “Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Turkish Experience”, Emerging Markets Finance&Trade, November– December, 44(6), 52–66.
Kim, S., Y.C. Park (2006) “Inflation Targeting in Korea: a Model of Success?”, BIS Paper, No. 31, 140-164.
King, M. (2002) The inflation Target Ten Years On, Speech Delivered to the London School of Economics, 19 November 2002, London.
Levin, A.T., F.M. Natalucci, J.M. Piger (2004) “The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting”, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 86(4), 51- 80.
Lin, S., H. Ye (2009) “Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference in Developing Countries?”, Journal of Development Economics, 89(1),118-123.
Mendonça, H.F. (2007) “Empirical Evidence from Fourteen Countries with Explicit Inflation Targeting”, Applied Economics Letters, 14(8), 573-576.
Mishkin, F.S. (1999) “International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 43(3), 579-605.
Mishkin, F.S. (2000) “Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 7618.
Mishkin, F.S., A.S. Posen (1997) “Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries”. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, 3(3), 9-110,
Mishkin, F.S., K. Schmidt-Hebbel (2001) “One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?” NBER Working Paper Series, no. 8397.
Mishkin, F.S., K. Schmidt-Hebbel (2007) “Does InflationTargeting Make a Difference”, Working Paper Series, No.12876.
Neumann, M. J. M., J. von Hagen (2002) “Does Inflation Targeting Matter?”, Center for European Integration Studies, ZEI Working Paper, No. B 01-2002.
Neyaptı, B. (2012) “Monetary Institutions and Inflation Performance”, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 15(4), 339-354.
Özatay, F. (2011) Parasal İktisat Kuram ve Politika, Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
Petursson, T.G. (2004) “The Effects of Inflation Targeting on Macroeconomic Performance”, Central Bank of Iceland Working Papers, No. 23.
Petursson, T.G. (2005) “Inflation Targeting and Its Effects on Macroeconomic Performance”, SUERF Studies, SUERF-The European Money and Finance Forum, Number 2005/5 M. Balling, (ed.).
Roger, S. (1997) “A Robust Measure of Core Inflation in New Zealand, 1949-1996”, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, No. G97/7.
Schaechter, A., M.R. Stone, M. Zelner (2000) “Adopting Inflation Targeting: Practical Issues for Emerging Countries”, Occasional Paper, No. 202, New York: (IMF).
Siklos, P.L. (1999) “Inflation-Target Design: Changing Inflation Performance and Persistence in Industrial Countries”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 47-58.
Svensson, L.E.O. (1997) “Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets”, European Economic Review, 41(6),1111–46.
Svensson, L.E.O. (1999) “Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 43(3), 607-654.
Svensson, L.E.O. (2001) Independent Review of the Operation of Monetary Policy in New Zealand: A Report to the Minister of Finance, Stockholm: Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University.
Svensson, L.E.O. (2010) “Inflation Targeting”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 16654.
Tagushi H., C. Kato (2010) “Assessing the Performance of Inflation Targeting in East Asian Economies”, Asian-Pasific Economic Literature, 93-102.
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (2009) 2009 Yılı Enflasyon Raporu –IV, Ankara. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (2010) 2010 Yılı Enflasyon Raporu –IV, Ankara. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (2012) 2012 Yılı Enflasyon Raporu –IV, Ankara. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/