Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Çıkışlarının Dış Ticaret Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi

Bu çalışmada doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışlarının, ana ülkenin dış ticareti üzerindeki etkisi gelişmiş (ABD, Almanya, Fransa, Hollanda, İngiltere, Japonya, Kanada) ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler (Brezilya, Çin, Güney Afrika, Hindistan, Meksika, Rusya, Türkiye) örneğinde araştırılmıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışma, 1993-2018 dönemi için yatay kesit bağımlılığını göz önünde bulunduran panel veri analiz yöntemleriyle gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda; bu ülkelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışlarındaki %10’luk bir artış ana ülkenin ihracatını %0.8, ithalatını ise %0.5 oranında artırmaktadır. Sonuç olarak gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışları ile ana ülkenin dış ticareti arasında tamamlayıcı bir ilişki vardır. Bu nedenle ülkeler, doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışlarını teşvik edici politikalar uygulayabilir.

The Effect of Outward Foreign Direct Invesment on Foreign Trade: Panel Data Analysis

In this study, the effect of outward foreign direct investment on the foreign trade of the home country was investigated in the example of developed (USA, Germany, France, Netherlands, UK, Japan, Canada) and developing countries (Brazil, China, South Africa, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey). In this context, the study was carried out using panel data analysis methods, which take into account the cross-sectional dependency for the period 1993-2018. As a result of the analysis, a 10% increase in outward foreign direct investment in these countries increases the home country's export by 0.8 and import by %0.5. As a result, there is a complementary relationship between outward foreign direct investment and the foreign trade of the home country in developed and developing countries. Therefore, countries can implement policies that encourage outward foreign direct investment.

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