ÇEVRESEL KALİTENİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde 1980-2017 döneminde ekonomik büyüme, küreselleşme ve çevresel bozulmaları kapsamlı bir şekilde gösteren ekolojik ayak izi verileri kullanılarak ampirik bir uygulama yapılmıştır. Değişkenlerin birim kök düzeyi ADF birim kök testiyle incelenmiştir. Değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisini incelemek için ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ve katsayı tahmincilerinden Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) ve Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) yöntemlerinden faydalanılmıştır. ARDL sınır testinin kısa ve uzun dönem sonuçlarına göre ekonomik büyümedeki artışlar çevresel bozulmalara sebep olurken; küreselleşmede meydana gelen artışlar çevresel bozulmaları azaltmaktadır. FMOLS yöntemi sonucuna göre; kişi başına düşen milli gelirde meydana gelen %1’lik artış ekolojik ayak izini %0.83 artırırken; küreselleşmedeki %1’lik artış ekolojik ayak izini %0.55 azaltmaktadır. CCR yöntemi sonucuna göre ise; kişi başına düşen milli gelirde meydana gelen %1’lik artış ekolojik ayak izini %0.80 artırırken; küreselleşmede meydana gelen %1’lik artış ekolojik ayak izini %0.43 azaltmaktadır. ARDL, FMOLS ve CCR yöntemlerinin bulguları benzer sonuçlar vermiştir. Ayrıca Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi hipotezinin kısa ve uzun dönemde geçerli olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekolojik Ayak İzi, Küreselleşme, Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezi, Türkiye Ekonomisi, ARDL Sınır Testi, ARDL Bounds Test

Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Environmental Quality

In this study, an empirical application has been made by using ecological footprint data that comprehensively shows the economic growth, globalization and environmental degradation in the 1980-2017 period in the Turkish economy. The unit root level of the variables was examined with the ADF unit root test. In order to examine the cointegration relationship between the variables, ARDL boundary test approach and the coefficient estimators Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) methods were used. According to the short and long term results of ARDL bounds test, while increases in economic growth cause environmental deterioration; Increases in globalization reduce environmental degradation. According to the FMOLS method result; While the 1% increase in per capita income increases the ecological footprint by 0.83%; 1% increase in globalization reduces the ecological footprint by 0.55%. According to the result of the CCR method; While the 1% increase in per capita income increases the ecological footprint by 0.80%; 1% increase in globalization reduces the ecological footprint by 0.43%. Findings of ARDL, FMOLS and CCR methods gave similar results. In addition, it was found that the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is valid in the short and long term.

Keywords:

Ecological Footprint, Globalization, Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis, Turkish Economy, ARDL Bounds Test,

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