Ahmet USTA

İktisadi Aktivite ve İşsizlik Oranının Konut Talebi Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye için Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli Tahmini

Bu çalışma Türkiye'de konut satın alma ihtimali, sanayi üretim endeksi ve işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Makale, eş bütünleşme analizi ve vektör hata düzeltme modelini 2010:01 ile 2019:12 arasındaki aylık verilerle tahmin ederek belirtilen değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki olup olmadığını test etmektedir. Test sonuçları, ev satın alma ihtimalinin işsizlik oranı ile arasında negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ilişki olduğunu ortaya koyarken iktisadi aktivite ile arasında pozitif fakat istatistiksel olarak anlamsız ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. İlaveten, konut satın alma ihtimalinde meydana gelen uzun dönem dengesinden sapma her bir dönem içinde %24 oranında düzelmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Konut satın alma ihtimali, İşsizlik oranı, İktisadi faaliyet, Vektör hata düzeltme modeli

The Impact of Economic Activity and Unemployment Rate on Housing Demand: Estimating a Vector Error Correction Model for Turkey

This study investigates the relationship between probability of buying a house, industrial production index, and unemployment rate in Turkey. This paper tests whether there is a long run relationship among above-stated variables by conducting a cointegration analysis and estimating a vector error correction model with a monthly data over the period between 2010:01 and 2019:12. While the test results suggest a negative and statistically significant relation between probability of buying a house and unemployment rate, the results suggest a positive but statistically insignificant relation with economic activity. Moreover, the deviation from the long run equilibrium is corrected towards equilibrium by 24% within a period.

Keywords:

Probability of buying a house, Unemployment rate, Economic activity, Vector error correction model,

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