Adana ve çevre illerde gözlenen yıllık maksimum yağışların bölgesel frekans analizi

Hidrolik yapıların tasarlanması ve projelendirilmesinde yapının ekonomik ömrü boyunca yapıya gelecek maksimum taşkınların büyüklüklerinin ve meydana gelme frekanslarının güvenilir bir biçimde tahmin edilmesi büyük önem arz etmektedir. İstatistiksel bir metot olan bölgesel frekans analizi bu amaçla kullanılan yöntemlerden biridir. Bölgesel frekans analizi, sadece su yapılarının tasarımı sırasında etkili tahmin yapılmasında değil, aynı zamanda hidrolojik bilgi olmayan veya kısa süreli veriye sahip bölgelerde de tasarım parametrelerinin belirlenmesinde kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada dağılım parametrelerini tahmin etmek için L-momentler tekniği kullanılarak Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü (MGM) ve Devlet Su İşleri (DSİ) tarafından işletilen, Adana ve çevresindeki illerde bulunan, 53 adet yağış gözlem istasyonundan elde edilen ve kayıt süreleri 18 yıldan uzun olan istasyonların yıllık maksimum yağış değerlerine bölgesel frekans analizi uygulanmıştır. Bölgeselleştirme tekniği olarak, L-momentlere dayalı gösterge-taşkın metodu (Index Flood Method) kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen homojen bölgelere Genelleştirilmiş Normal, Genelleştirilmiş Ekstrem Değer, Genelleştirilmiş Lojistik, Genelleştirilmiş Pareto, Pearson Tip 3 dağılımları uygulanarak tekerrür periyoduna karşılık proje yağış değerleri elde edilmiştir. Noktalama pozisyonu formülü olarak literatürde yaygın olarak kullanılan Medyan, Hosking, Gringorten, Hazen ve Cunnane formülleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçları karşılaştırmada hata ölçümü için 3 parametre kullanılmıştır. Bu üç parametre sırasıyla normalleştirilmiş mutlak hata (NAE), ortalama mutlak hata (MAE) ve ortalama karesel hatadır (RMSE). Hata ölçüm değerleri, Genelleştirilmiş Lojistik (GLO) dağılımının en yaklaşık sonucu verdiğini göstermiştir.

Regional frequency analysis of annual peak rainfall of adana and the vicinity

The design and the project of hydraulic structures, during economic life of the structure, a reliable estimate of the magnitude and the frequency of the maximum flood will occur is of great importance. Regional frequency analysis, being a statistical method, is used for this purpose. Regional flood frequency analysis provides a solution not only in estimating the design event magnitudes but also at sites having too short records and at sites where no hydrologic information is available. In this study, regional flood frequency analysis using L-moments method for estimating the probability distribution parameters were applied to minimum 18 years of recorded series of annual maximum precipitation peaks of 53 precipitation stations which operated by Turkish State of Meteorological Service and Public Waterworks Administration. The index flood method based on L-moments method was used for identification of homogenous region. Generalized Normal, Generalized Extreme Value, Generalized Logistic, Generalized Pareto, Pearson Type 3 and Wakeby distributions were applied to homogenous regions to obtain the reoccurence values. Median, Hosking, Cunnane, Gringorten, Hazen formulas frequently used in literature were used as plotting position formula. Results of the 3 parameters were used for the comparison measurement error. These three parameters are respectively normalized absolute error (NAE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean square error (RMSE). According to the measurement error value, Generalized Logistic distribution is found to give most accurate results.

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