Ara malları ithalatı, göreceli fiyat ve reel efektif döviz kuru ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği

Bu çalışmada göreceli fiyatlar ve reel efektif döviz kurunun ara malı ithalatı üzerine olan etkisi Türkiye kapsamında 2013M1-2020-M2 dönemi için araştırılmaktadır. Amaç doğrultusunda analizde Granger nedensellik, Toda ve Yamamoto nedensellik ve Johansen eşbütünleşme testleri kullanılmaktadır. Nedensellik testlerine göre değişkenler arasında doğrudan bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmemiştir. Bu durumun tersine, eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göre ise hem uzun dönem hem de kısa dönemde ilişki bulunduğu saptanmıştır. Analizden elde edilen sonuçlara göre her iki dönem için de ara malı ithalatı ile göreceli fiyat arasında negatif, ara malı ithalatı ve reel efektif döviz kuru ile pozitif bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. İki bulgu da Türkiye’nin dış ticaret ve döviz kuru politikaları bağlamında önlemler alması gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

ara malı ithalatı, reel efektif döviz kuru, nedensellik analizi, eşbütünleşme analizi

The imports of intermediate goods, relative price and real effective exchange rate relationship: The case of Turkey

In this study, the effect of relative prices and real effective exchange rate on imports of intermediate goods in Turkey is investigated for the period 2013M1-2020M2. Within the scope of the purpose, Granger causality, Toda and Yamamoto causality and Johansen cointegration tests are used in the analysis. According to the causality tests, no direct causality relationship is found between the variables. On the contrary, according to the cointegration test results, there is a relationship in both the long term and the short term. For both periods, a negative relationship was found between imports of intermediate goods and relative prices, and a positive relationship with the real effective exchange rate. Both findings show that Turkey should take measures in the context of foreign trade and exchange rate policies.

Keywords:

imports of intermediate goods, reel effective exchange rate, causality analysis, cointegration analysis,

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