The Impact of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy of Turkey

Global finansal kriz, gelişmiş ülkelerde varlik fiyatlarinda meydana gelen şiddet- li ve ani düşüşlerin reel ekonomik aktivitede yarattiği daralmadan kaynaklanmiş- tir. Global finansal kriz sonrasinda bir yandan finansal istikrarsizliğin fiyat istikra- rini bozucu etkileri ortaya çikarken, diğer yandan para politikalariyla varlik fiyat- larina nasil ve ne ölçüde müdahale edilmesi gerektiği tartişilmaya başlanmiştir. Söz konusu gerekçelerden dolayi, varlik fiyati değişimleri enflasyon hedefleme- si uygulayan ülke merkez bankalarinin reaksiyon fonksiyonlarina dahil edilmiş- tir. Bu çalişmanin temel amaci, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankasinin (TCMB) 2002 sonrasi dönemde enflasyon ve çikti açiğinin yani sira, hisse senetleri fiyat- larindaki değişimlere reaksiyon gösterip göstermediğini tespit etmektir. Bu şekil- de Türkiyede para politikalari yürütülürken, finansal sektördeki gelişmelerin dik- kate alinip alinmadiği belirlenecektir. Varlik fiyatlarindaki değişimlerin TCMBnin faiz kararlari üzerindeki etkisi ileriye dönük genişletilmiş Taylor kurali çerçevesin- de incelenecektir. Çalişmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre, TCMB en fazla reak- siyonu öncelikle enflasyonun hedeflenen değerden sapmasina, sonra ise üretim açiğina göstermektedir. En düşük reaksiyonu ise hisse senetlerinin denge değer- lerinden sapmasina göstermektedir. Çalişma sonuçlari TCMBnin para politikala- rini fiyat istikrari odakli yürütmeye devam ettiğini ortaya koymaktadir.

Türkiyede Para Politikalari Uygulamalarinda Varlik Fiyatlarinin Etkisi

The global financial crisis was the result of the contraction in economic activity that was a result of sharp decreases in asset prices in developed countries. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the destructive effects of financial ins- tability on price stability began to become apparent and a discussion started on how and to what extent central banks should intervene in asset prices via mone- tary policies. As a result of this discussion, changes in asset prices were included in the reaction functions of central banks particularly adopting inflation-targeting regime. The aim of this study is to determine whether the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) reacts to changes in stock prices apart from inflati- on and output gap in the period after 2002. This will help to find out whether the developments in the financial sector are taken into consideration while the mo- netary policies are being carried out in Turkey. The effects of the changes in as- set prices on the decisions of CBRT on interest rates will be examined within the framework of forward-looking augmented Taylor rule. According to the findings of this study, CBRT shows the greatest reaction to deviations of inflation from tar- get value. CBRT reacts the least to the deviation of stock prices from their funda- mental level. The results of this study indicate that CBRT has continued to carry out monetary policies based on price stability.

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