DÖVİZ KURU DALGALANMALARI VE ÖDEMELER DENGESİ: TÜRKİYE'DEN KANITLAR

Bu çalışma, döviz kurundaki değişimler ile Türkiye'nin ödemeler dengesi (ÖD) arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Çalışmada, 2000:Q1 ile 2019:Q4 dönemleri arasındaki çeyreklik veriler kullanılarak, değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkileri tahmin etmek için ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, her bir serinin I(2) olup olmadığından emin olmak için, birim kök testi olarak Augmented Dickey-Fuller ve Phillips-Perron testlerine başvurulmuştur. Veriler Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) ve TÜİK veri tabanlarından elde edilmiştir. Çalışmada, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını kontrol etmek için sınır eşbütünleşme testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, döviz kuru ve dışa açıklığın uzun dönemde anlamsız olduğunu, TÜFE, reel GSYİH ve faiz oranının ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak kısa dönemde döviz kuru, TÜFE ve reel GSYH'ın BOP'u etkileyen önemli faktörler olduğu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Döviz Kuru Değişimi, Ödemeler Dengesi, ARDL, Birim Kök, Eş Bütünleşme, TCMB, Sınır Testi, ADF, Phillips Perron Testi

EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE

This study examines the relationship between exchange rate changes and the BOP of TÜRKİYE. While utilizing quarterly data ranging from 2000:Q1 to 2019:Q4, the study employs ARDL approach to estimate the long run and the short run relationship between the mentioned variables. To make it sure that none of the series are I(2), the study uses Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron tests for unit root testing of the series. Data are taken from the Central Bank of the Republic of TÜRKİYE (CBRT) and TURKSTAT databases. The study used bound cointegration testing approach to check for the existence of the long run relationship between the variables. The findings indicate that exchange rate and openness are insignificant in the long run, while CPI, real GDP, and IR were found to be statistically significant. Whereas the exchange rate, CPI, and real GDP are the factors significantly influencing the BOP in the short run.

Keywords:

Exchange Rate Fluctuations, The Balance of Payment, ARDL, Unit Root, Cointegration, CBRT, Bound Test, ADF, Phillips Perron Test,

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