Tunus’ta Siyasi Kırılmalar: Devletin Görevlerini Yerine Getirmedeki Başarısı ve Tunus’un Değişen Toplum Sözleşmeleri

Bir ülkedeki devlet ile toplumsal aktörler arasındaki ilişkiyi tanımlayan toplum sözleşmeleri tarafların her ikisine de önemli görevler verir. Devletten beklenen başlıca görevler literatürde kısaca 3 P –koruma, tedarik ve katılım- olarak anılmaktadır. Taraflar kendilerine verilen görevleri hakkıyla yerine getirmeye devam ettikleri sürece sözleşme geçerlidir. Ancak görevlerin yerine getirilmesinin aksadığı ya da reddedildiği siyasi kırılma noktalarında sözleşmelerin de yenilenmesi gerekir. Bu çalışma, V-Dem verilerini kullanarak, 1955’den günümüze Tunus’ta devletin kendisinden beklenen rolleri yerine getirmede ne kadar etkili ve başarılı olduğunu tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu süreçte Tunus’un 4 önemli siyasi kırılma noktasından geçtiği söylenir. Bunlar; 1950lerin ikinci yarısında Fransız sömürgesinden bağımsızlaşma, 1980lerdeki neo-liberal politika değişimleri, 2011 devrimi ve 2021 sonrası anti-demokratik siyasi adımlardır. Yirmi iki farklı değişkenin değerlerinin zaman içerisindeki değişimlerinin izlendiği grafikler göstermektedir ki Tunus’un bağımsızlığını ilan ettiği dönem ile 2011 devrimi devletin görevlerini uygulayışını değiştiren mühim kırılma noktalarıdır. Bağımsızlığını ilan eden Tunus devleti özellikle koruma ve tedarik boyutunda ciddi bir iyileşme yaşarken, 2011 devrimi ve 2021 yılından itibaren gelişen siyasi olayların ise öncelikli olarak devletin katılım görevini etkilediği görülmektedir.

Turning Points in Tunisian Politics: The State’s Success in Fulfilling Its Duties and Changing Social Contracts in Tunisia

Social contracts that define state-society relations assign substantial roles to both of these parties. In the literature, state duties are abbreviated as 3 P, which stands for protection, provision, and participation. The contract is valid so long as the actors continue to perform their roles. The contracts are to be renewed, however, during political turning points in which significant changes in the roles performed by the actors are observed. This article analyzes, using V-Dem data, how the effectiveness of the Tunisian state in fulfilling its responsibilities has changed from 1955 to the present, with a focus on political turning points such as independence, policy shifts in 1980s, 2011 revolution and the so-called civilian coup in 2021. The graphs of the findings depict the changes in the values of twenty-two distinct variables over time leading to the conclusion that the independence period and the 2011 revolution were significant turning points that altered the attitude of the Tunisian state. While the newly independent Tunisian state was successful in developing its obligations of protection and provision, the 2011 Revolution and subsequent political events occurring after 2021 had the greatest impact on the state's obligation to create the conditions for citizen participation.

___

  • President Saied hails ‘new phase’ in Tunisia after projections of referandum win. (2022, 26 Temmuz). The Arab Weekly, https://thearabweekly.com/president-saied-hails-new-phase-tunisia-after-projections-referendum-win adresinden 11.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • “The V-Dem Project”. https://www.v-dem.net/about/v-dem-project/ adresinden 11.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • “Timeline: Kais Saied's crackdown in Tunisia, from suspending parliament to arresting Ghannouchi”. (2023, 18 Nisan). Al-Monitor. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/04/timeline-kais-saieds-crackdown-tunisia-suspending-parliament-arresting-ghannouchi adresinden 10.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Tunisian authorities close opposition Ennahdha party HQ. (2023, 18 Nisan). AlJazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/18/tunisian-authorities-close-opposition-ennahda-party-hq adresinden 11.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Codebook V-Dem. https://www.v-dem.net/documents/24/codebook_v13.pdf
  • Abushouk, A.I. (2016). The Arab Spring: A Fourth Wave of Democratization?. Domes, 25, 52-69.
  • Angrist, M. P. (2013). Understanding the Success of Mass Civic Protest in Tunisia. The Middle East Journal, 67(4), 547-564.
  • Aras, B. ve Falk, R. (2016). Five Years After the Arab Apring: a critical evaluation. Third World Quarterly, 37(12), 2252-2258.
  • Ayeb, H. (2011). Social and Political Geography of the Tunisian Revolution: The Alfa Grass Revolution. Review of African Political Economy, 38(129), 467-479.
  • Bellin, E. (1991). Tunisian Industrialists and the State. W. Zartman (Ed.). Tunisia, the Political Economy of Reform (s. 45-65) içinde. Boulder: Lynne Rienner
  • Bishara, D., Jurkovich, M. ve Berman, C. (2023). Citizens’ understanding of the social contract: Lessons from Tunisia. World Development.
  • Cohen, J. (2007). Deliberative democracy. Rosenberg SW (Ed.). Deliberation, Participation and Democracy: Can the People Govern? (s. 219-236) içinde. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Dalton, R. J. ve Weldon, S. A. (2005). Public Images of Political Parties: A Necessary Evil?. West European Politics, 28(5), 931-951.
  • della Porta, D. (2019). For participatory democracy: some notes. European Political Science, 18, 603–616.
  • Deane, S. (2013). Transforming Tunisia: The role of civil society in Tunisia’s transition. London: International Alert. https://www.international-alert.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Tunisia-Civil-Society-Role-EN-2013.pdf adresinden 11.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Democracy Index 2022: Frontline Democracy and the battle for Ukraine, Economist Intelligence. https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2022/ adresinden 11.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Diamond, L. (1994). Rethinking Civil Society: Toward Democratic Consolidation. Journal of Democracy, 5(3), 4-17.
  • Dingli, S. (2013). Is the Failed State Thesis Analytically Useful? The Case of Yemen. Politics, 33(2), 91–100.
  • Eibl, F. (2020). Social dictatorships. The political economy of the welfare state in the Middle East and North Africa. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.
  • El-Haddad, A. (2020). Redefining the Social Contract in the Wake of the Arab Spring: The experiences of Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. World Development, 127, 104774.
  • Elklit, J. ve Svensson, P. (1997). What Makes Elections Free and Fair?. Journal of Democracy, 8(3), 32-46.
  • Fabre, C. (2018). Toplumsal Sözleşme (M. F. Deniz, çev.). Felsefe Arkivi, 48(1), 123-135.
  • Freedom in the World 2023: Tunisia. https://freedomhouse.org/country/tunisia/freedom-world/2023 adresinden 11.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Fuentes, G. M. (2010). Divisive Electoral Policies within Authoritarian Elections: the Tunisian Casuistry (1989–2009), The Journal of North African Studies, 15(4), 521-534.
  • Furness, M. ve B. Trautner, (2020). Reconstituting Social Contracts in conflict-affected MENA Countries: Whither Iraq and Libya?. World Development, 135, 105085.
  • Gülcan, D. (2018). Ekolojik Kriz Karşısında Devletin Rolü Üzerine İdeolojik Bir Tartışma. Uluslararası İlişkiler, 15(59), 49 - 63.
  • Hay, C., M. Lister ve D. Marsh. (2006). The State: Theories and Issues. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Huber, D. ve Pisciotta, B. (2022). From Democracy to Hybrid Regime: Democratic Backsliding and Populism in Hungary and Tunisia. Contemporary Politics, DOI: 10.1080/13569775.2022.2162210
  • Inglehart, R. ve Welzel, C. (2005). Modernization, Cultural Change and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. Cambridge University Press.
  • Jerad, N. (2013). The Tunisian Revolution: From Universal Slogans for Democracy to the Power of Language, Middle East Journal of Culture and Communication, 6(2), 232-255.
  • Karasapan, O. (2015). Toward a New Social Contract in Tunisia. Brookings Future Development Blog. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2015/10/27/toward-a-new-social-contract-in- tunisia/ adresinden 10.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Karshenas, M. ve Moghadam, V. M. (2006). Social Policy in the Middle East: Introduction and Overview. M. Karshenas, ve V. M. Moghadam (Ed). Social Policy in the Middle East: Economic, Political, and Gender Dynamics (s. 1-30) içinde. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Kenrick D.T., V. Griskevicius, S. L. Neuberg, ve M. Schaller. (2010). Renovating the Pyramid of Needs: Contemporary Extensions Built Upon Ancient Foundations. Perspect Psychol Sci., 5(3), 292-314.
  • Khondker, H.H. (2019). The Impact of the Arab Spring on Democracy and Development in the MENA Region. Sociology Compass, 13(9).
  • King, S. J. (2007). Sustaining Authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa. Political Science Quarterly, 122(3), 433–459.
  • Levitsky, S. ve Way, L. A. (2010). Why Democracy Needs a Level Playing Field. Journal of Democracy, 21(1), 57-68.
  • Lijphart, A. (1998). The Problem of Low and Unequal Voter Turnout- and what we can do about it. Institut für Höhere Studien. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-246720 Adresinden 11.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Loewe, M. ve H. Albrecht. (2022). The Social Contract in Egypt, Lebanon and Tunisia: What do the people want?. Journal of International Development, 1–18.
  • Loewe, M. ve T. Zintl. (2021). State Fragility, Social Contracts and the Role of Social Protection: Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region. Social Sciences, 10(12), 447.
  • Loewe, M., T. Zintl ve A. Houdret. (2021). The Social Contract as a Tool of Analysis: Introduction to the Special Issue on ‘‘Framing the Evolution of New Social Contracts in Middle Eastern and North African Countries”. World Politics, 145, 1-16.
  • Mahmoud, Y. and Súilleabháin, A. (2020). Improvising Peace: Towards New Social Contracts in Tunisia. Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding, 14(1), 101-118.
  • Mercan, M. H. ve Kılavuz, M. T. (2017). Tunus’ta Demokratikleşme ve Elit Teorisi. Uluslararası İlişkiler, 14(55), 75-92.
  • Paciello, M. C. (2011). Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political transition. Medpro Technical Report. http://aei.pitt.edu/59195/1/MEDPRO_TR_No_3_Paciello_on_Tunisia_(1).pdf adresinden 11.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Pateman, C. (2012). Participatory Democracy Revisited. Perspectives on Politics, 10(1), 7-19. Ramacciotti, B. (2005, 15 Mart). Democracy and Multidimensional Security: The rising need for citizen security in Latin America. https://pdba.georgetown.edu/Security/referencematerials_ramacciotti.pdf adresinden 11.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Rijkers, B., Freund, C. ve Nucifora, A. (2017). All in the Family: State Capture in Tunisia. Journal of Development Economics, 124(C), 41-59.
  • Rose-Ackerman, S. (2007). From Elections to Democracy in Central Europe: Public Participation and the Role of Civil Society. East European Politics and Societies, 21(1), 31–47.
  • Rougier, E. (2016). “Fire in Cairo”: Authoritarian–Redistributive Social Contracts, Structural Change, and the Arab Spring. World Development, 78, 148-171.
  • Stepan, A. ve Robertson, G. (2004). Arab, Not Muslim, Exceptionalism. Journal of Democracy, 15(4), 140-146.
  • Suteu, S. (2019). The Populist Turn in Central and Eastern Europe: Is deliberative democracy part of the solution?. European Constitutional Law Review, 15(3), 488-518.
  • Tamburini, F. (2022). ‘How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Autocracy’: Kais Saied’s “Constitutional Self-Coup” in Tunisia. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 0(0).
  • Talukder, D. ve Pilet, J. B. (2021). Public Support for Deliberative Democracy: A specific look at the attitudes of citizens from disadvantaged groups. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 34(5), 656-676.
  • Weipert-Fenner, I. ve Wolff, J. (2020). Introduction: Socioeconomic Protests in Times of Political Change—Studying Egypt and Tunisia from a Comparative Perspective. Weipert-Fenner, I. ve Wolff, J. (Ed.). Socioeconomic Protests in MENA and Latin America. Middle East Today (s. 1-40) içinde. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
  • Williams, M. S. (1998). Voice, Trust, and Memory: Marginalized Groups and the Failings of Liberal Representation. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Yerkes, S. ve Alhomoud, M. (2022, 22 Temmuz). On Year Late, Tunisia’s President Has Reversed Nearly a Decade of Democratic Gains. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/22/one-year-later-tunisia-s-president-has-reversed-nearly-decade-of-democratic-gains-pub-87555 adresinden 11.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Yerkes, S. ve Ben Yahmed, Z. (2018 Aralık). Tunisians’ Revolutionary Goals Remain Unfulfilled. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Yerkes_Yahmed_Tunisias_Goals_Unfulfilled_Dec2018_WEB.pdf adresinden 12.05.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Zittel, T. (2007). Participatory Democracy and Political Participation. T. Zittel ve D. Fuchs (Ed.). Participatory Democracy and Political Participation (s. 9-28) içinde. New York: Routledge.