Birol YILDIZ

Fundamental Analysis With Neuro-Fuzzy Technology: An Experiment in Istanbul Stock Exchange

Bu çalışmanın amacı bulanık-sinirsel ağ kullanarak hisse senedi getirisinin tahmin edilmesidir. Ayrıca bu çalışma yatırımcının finansal tabloları analiz etme sürecini, elde edilen bulanık-sinirsel ağ modelinin kurallarını yorumlayarak elde etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. İstanbul Menkul Kıymet Borsasında 1992-1999 döneminden işlem görmüş işletmelerden oluşan veri seti kullanılmıştır. Modelin portföy getirisi piyasanın üstünde olmasına karşın, bu fark istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Fakat çalışma yatırımcıların düşük Fiyat/Kazanç (F/K) ve yüksek brut satış karı ve/veya faaliyet karı olan işletmeleri seçtiğini ortaya çıkarmıştır.

Bulanık-Sinirsel Ağ ile Temel Analiz: İMKB'de Amprik Bir Çalışma

The purpose of this study is to perform fundamental analysis and cross-sectional prediction of stock return with neuro-fuzzy. Also this study tries to understand the investors’ process of financial statement analysis by interpreting the neuro-fuzzy model rules. The data set consisted of firms traded on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) in Turkey during the period of 1992-1999. Validation of the neuro-fuzzy model is conducted at the portfolio level. Even though there isn’t any statistically significant difference, the neuro-fuzzy model provides slightly higher return than benchmark portfolios. Also this approach exposes how investors select those firms which have low Price Earning (P/E) ratios but high gross profit and/or operating profit.

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