Türkiye'de birincil enerji tüketimi, karbondioksit emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi

Bu çalışma 1970-2008 dönemi için Türkiyede karbondioksit emisyonu, fert başına gelir, birincil enerji tüketimi ve yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiyi eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testleriyle araştırmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlarda, değişkenler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin mevcut olduğu gözlenmiştir. Test sonuçlarında ekonomik büyüme ve birincil enerji tüketiminden karbondioksit emisyonuna doğru kısa dönem tek yönlü nedensel ilişkiye rastlanmıştır. Ayrıca enerji tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme ve yatırımların uzun dönemde karbondioksit emisyonunun Granger nedeni olduğu ortaya konmuştur. Bu sonuçlardan Türkiyede enerji tüketimi ve yatırımların ekonomik büyümede en önemli faktör olduğu söylenebilir. Dolayısıyla artan enerji tüketiminin uzun dönemde daha fazla kirlenmeye yol açacağından politika yapıcılarının artan enerji talebini karşılamak için alternatif enerji kaynaklarını teşvik etmeleri gerekmektedir.

The relationships between primary energy consumption, carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in Turkey: An analysis of cointegration and causality

The study investigates cointegration and causality between primary energy consumption, CO2 emissions, per capita gross domestic product and investments for Turkey using ARDL bounds testing approach complemented by Johansen Juselius cointegration framework for time span 1970-2008. Empirical results indicate that there is an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables in Turkey. The results indicate that uni-directional causality exists from economic growth and primary energy consumption to carbon dioxide emission both in the short-run. It has also been found that energy consumption, economic growth and investment are the long-run causes for CO2 emissions. An important policy implication is that energy consumption can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth and investment in Turkey. Moreover, as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long-run, policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasing energy demand.

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