DÖVİZ KURU, PETROL FİYATLARI VE DOĞRUDAN YABANCI SERMAYE YATIRIMLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: G7 ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR ANALİZ
Bu çalışma döviz kuru, petrol fiyatları ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleme amacını taşımaktadır. Bu amaçla, petrol tüketiminde ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişlerinde en büyük paya sahip G7 ülkeleri için 1980-2019 dönemine ait verilerle değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkileri araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmada son yıllarda geliştirilen, yapısal kırılmanın formuna ve önceden bilinmesine gerek duyulmayan SOR birim kök testi, Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme ve Fourier Granger nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar Almanya, Fransa, İtalya ve Japonya’da değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkiyi göstermektedir. Ayrıca, petrol fiyatları ile döviz kuru ve petrol fiyatları ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasında nedensellik ilişkileri mevcuttur. Kanada için reel döviz kuru ile petrol fiyatları arasında çift yönlü nedensellik varken, ABD için reel döviz kurundan petrol fiyatlarına doğru, Almanya için ise petrol fiyatından reel döviz kuruna doğru nedensellik bulunmaktadır. Fransa ve İngiltere’de ise petrol fiyatlarından doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik bulunmaktadır. Petrol fiyat şoklarının yol açtığı döviz kurundaki oynaklık ve üretim maliyetleri üzerindeki baskıyı azaltmak için petrole olan bağımlılığın azaltılması gerekmektedir. Petrol fiyat şoklarının olumsuz etkilerini minimize etmede ülkelerin enerji kaynaklarının çeşitliliğini artırıcı stratejileri uygulaması önem taşımaktadır
Anahtar Kelimeler:
Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları, Döviz Kuru, Birim Kök Testi, FADL Eşbütünleşme Testi, Fourier Granger Nedensellik Testi
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE, OIL PRICES, AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS: AN ANALYSIS ON G7 COUNTRIES
This study aims to examine the relationship between the exchange rate, oil prices and foreign direct investment. To the end, cointegration and causality relations between the variables are investigated with the data for the period of 1980-2019 for the G7 countries, which have the largest share in oil consumption and foreign direct capital inflows. In the study, it is used SOR unit root test, Fourier ADL cointegration and Fourier Granger causality tests developed in recent years and not need to know the form of the structural break beforehand. The findings indicate that there is a long-run relationship for Germany, France, Italy and Japan. Additionally, a causal links exist between oil prices and exchange rates, and between oil prices and foreign direct investment. There is the bidirectional causality between the real exchange rate and oil prices for Canada, the unidirectional causality from real exchange rate to oil prices for USA, and from oil price to real exchange rate for Germany. In France and England, a unidirectional relationship exists between oil prices and foreign direct investment. To relieve pressure on exchange rate volatility and production costs from oil price shocks, the dependence on oil should be reduced. In order to minimize the adverse impacts of oil shocks, it is important that countries implement strategies increasing the diversity of energy resources.
Keywords:
Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investments, Unit Root Test, FADL Cointegration Test, Fourier granger Casuality Test,
___
- Adıgüzel, U., Bayat, T., Kayhan, S. ve Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2013). Oil prices and exchange rates in Brazil, India and Turkey: Time and frequency domain causality analysis, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(1), 49-73.
- Aizenman, J. (1992). Exchange rate flexibility, volatility, and the patterns of domestic and foreign direct investment, International Monetary Fund, 39(4), 890-922.
- Bagchi, B. ve Paul, B. (2023). Effects of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Stock Markets and Currency Exchange Rates in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from G7 Countries, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 16(64), 1-18, https://doi.org/10.3390/ jrfm16020064.
- Baghestani, H. ve Toledo, H. (2019). Oil prices and real Exchange rates in the NAFTA region, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 48, 253–264.
- Bal, H., Algan, N. ve Akça, E.,E. (2014). Petrol üretiminin İran ekonomisi üzerine etkileri, İstanbul Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 50, 17-38.
- Bal, H., Yıldırım, K. ve Palandökenlier, B. (2022). Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Belirleyicileri ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği, International Conference On Eurasian Economies, 4B: Para ve Finans, Erişim Adresi: https://www.avekon.org/papers/2644.pdf
- Banerjee, P.,Arčabić, V. ve Lee, H. (2017). Fourier ADL cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from crude oil market, EconomicModelling, 67,114–124.
- Beckmann, J.,Berger, T. ve Czudaj, R. (2016). Oil price and FX rates dependency. Quantitative Finance, 16(3), 477–488. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2015.1045930
- British Petroleum. (2021, Ağustos, 15). Statistic review. Erişim adresi http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview Bodenstein, M.,Erceg, C., J. ve Guerrieri, L. (2011). Oil shocks and external adjustment, Journal of International Economics, 83, 168–184.
- Brzozowski, M. (2006). Exchange rate variability and foreign direct investment: Consequences of EMU enlargement, Eastern European Economics, 44(1), 5-24.
- Chen, S. ve Chen, S. C. (2007). Oil prices and real Exchange rates, Energy Economics, 29, 390–404. Chen, H.,Liu, L., Wang, Y. ve Zhu, Y. (2016). Oil price shocks and U.S. dollar exchange rates, Energy, 112, 1036-1048.
- Click, R. W.(2005). Financial and political risks in US direct foreign investment, Journal of International Business Studies, 36(5), 559-575.
- Cushman, D. (1985). Real exchange rate risk: Expectations and the level of direct investment, Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, 297-308.
- Enders, W. ve Jones, P. (2014). Grain prices, oil prices, and multiple smooth breaks in a VAR, Erişim adresi http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsessionid=0BB0B6CAD8A5E25E859529C8D9AD053F?doi=10.1.1.727.1104&rep=rep1&type=pdf.
- Golub, S. S.(1983). Oil prices and Exchange rates, The Economic Journal, 93(371),576-593. Huang, S.,An, H. ve Lucey, B. (2020). How do dynamic responses of exchange rates to oil price shocks co move? From a time-varying perspective, Energy Economics, 86, 1-14.
- Ji, Q., Shahzad, S.,J., H., Bouri, E. ve Suleman, M., H. (2020). Dynamic structural impacts of oil shocks on exchange rates: Lessons to learn, Journal of Economic Structures, 9(20), 1-19.
- Umar, I. A. ve Olakada, N. M. (2020). Evaluating the effect of crude oil prices on foreign direct investment: A Nigerian perspective, European Journal of Business and Management, 12(17), 85-92.
- Kisswani, K. M.,Harraf, A. ve Kisswani, A. M. (2019). Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN‑5 countries, Econ Change Restruct, 52, 279–300. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-018-9229-6
- Kızılkaya, F. (2021). Türkiye’de petrol fiyatları ve reel döviz kuru ilişkisinin asimetrik Fourier nedensellik analizi ile incelenmesi, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 71, 549-568. Doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1019608.
- Kim, J. M. ve Jung, A. (2018). Dependence structure between oil prices, Exchange rates, and interest rates, The Energy Journal, 39(2), 259-280.
- Kohlhagen, S.,W.(1977). Exchange rate changes, profitability, and direct foreign investment, Southern Economic Journal, 44(1), 43-52.
- Lin, B.,S. (2020). Does oil price have similar effects on the exchange rates of BRICS?, International Review of Financial Analysis, 69, 1-11.
- Lizardo, R. A., ve Mollick, A. V. (2010). Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates, Energy Economics, 32, 399-408.
- Mahmood, H. ve Alkhateeb, T.,T.,Y. (2018). Foreign direct investment, domestic investment and oil price nexus in Saudi Arabia, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(4), 1-5.
- Nejati, M. ve Bahmani, M. (2020). The economic impacts of foreign direct investment in oil and gas sector: A CGE analysis for Iranian economy, Energy Strategy Reviews 32,1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.100579
- Nouira, R., Amor, T.H. ve Rault, C. (2019). Oil price fluctuations and exchange rate dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from non-causality-in-variance and asymmetric non-causality tests, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 73, 159–171.
- Rasasi,M.,A. (2017). Oil prices and GCC exchange rates, Economics, Planning, and Policy, 12(4), 344–350. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2015.1132284
- Razmi, M., J. Ve Behname, M. (2012). FDI determinants and oil effects on foreign direct investment: evidence from Islamic countries, Advances in Management & Applied Economics, 2(4), 261-270.
- Reboredo, J.,C.,Miguel, A., R. C. ve Gilney F. Z. (2014). Oil and US dollar exchange rate dependence: A detrended cross-correlation approach, Energy Economics, 42, 132–139.
- Sabina,E. A. ve Ifeanyi, T. (2017). Causal relationship between drop in oil price, foreign direct investment and inflation: A comparative study of net exporter and net importer of oil, International Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR), 5(7), 1993-1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.21474/IJAR01/4933
- Schmidt, C. W. ve Broll, D. (2009). Real exchange-rate uncertainty and US foreign direct investment: An empirical analysis, Review of World Economics, 145(3), 513-530.
- Shahbaz, M., Omay, T. ve Roubaud, D. (2019). Sharp and smooth breaks in unit root testing of renewable energy consumption: The way forward, MPRA. Erişim adresi https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/92176/ Şit, M. ve Alancıoğlu, E. (2019). Türkiye ekonomisinde dünya petrol fiyatları ve döviz kuru ilişkisi: Ampirik analiz, Econharran, 3(3), 22-35.
- The World Bank. (2022, Ağustos, 17). World Development Indicators, Erişim adresi https://data.worldbank.org/indicator
- Taşçı, H. M. ve Düzgün, R. (2017). Döviz kurundaki dalgalanmanın doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye üzerinde bir uygulama, Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(60), 1-18.
- Vergil, H. ve Çeştepe, H. (2006). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve reel döviz kuru: Bir nedensellik analizi, İMKB Dergisi, 9(34), 38-45.
- Volkov, N. I. ve Yuhn, K.H. (2016). Oil price shocks and exchange rate movements, Global Finance Journal, 31,18–30.
- Yaman, D. (2021). Petrol Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkiye Asimetrik Bakış Açısı: Türkiye Örneği, Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, VI(2), 155-170.
- Yang, L.,Cai, X., J. ve Hamori, S. (2017). Does the crude oil price influence the Exchange rates of oil importing and oil-exporting countries differently? A wavelet coherence analysis, International Review of Economics and Finance 49, 536–547.
- Yin, L. ve Ma, X. (2018). Causality between oil shocks and exchange rate: A Bayesian, graph-based VAR approach, Physica, 508, 434–453.
- Ziyaat, I. ve Mansur, M. (2017). Testing the long-run relationship between exchange rate, oil price, FDI and GDP: An ARDL approach, MunichPersonalRePEc Archive, MPRA, Erişim tarihihttps://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/109279/
- Zhang, L. (2013). The links between the price of oil and the value of US dollar, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3(4), 341-351.
- ISSN: 1301-3688
- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 1981
- Yayıncı: -